According to the latest May report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries regarding the recent developments in the oil market, the OPEC oil production slightly increased again during April compared with March’s oil production levels. This rise was mainly due to Saudi Arabia and Libya’s growth in oil production. Iran’s oil production fell by 3.1%.
OPEC’s crude oil production reached 31,621 thousand bbl/d in April compared with 31,299 thousand bbl/d in March. Libya‘s oil production increased again by 87.5 thousand bbl/d to 1,423 thousand bbl/d. The current production levels are still nearly 12.5% belowLibya’s average oil production of 1.6 million bbl/d in 2010.Iraq’s oil production also sharply increased by 217.9 thousand bbl/d. Saudi Arabia;s oil production also slightly increased by 56.5 thousand bbl/d. On the other hand there was a 134.3 thousand bbl/d decrease in the production forIran to reach its lowest production level this year.
The rest of OPEC countries nearly didn’t change their oil quotas during April 2012.
The revised oil supply of non-OPEC countries is estimated at 50.83 million bbl/d in 2012, an increase of 0.58 million bbl/d compared with 2011’s oil supply.
Assuming OPEC’s supply in 2012 will remain at the same level during the first four months of 2012 at 31.29 million bbl/d and adding to that OPEC’s NGL’s and non-conventional oil at an estimate of 5.67 the total global supply will reach in 2012 an estimate of 87.79 million bbl/d.
The total world oil demand forecast for 2012 is estimated to reach 88.67 million bbl/d – a growth of 0.9 million bbl/d or roughly 1% compared with 2011’s demand.
The estimated total difference between supply and demand on a global will reach in 2012 a difference of 0.88 million bbl/d (i.e. a shortage of 880 thousand barrels).
One interpretation of these figures is that if the production won’t pick up, the prices of crude oil will remain high.
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