Here is a review on the EIA petroleum report on the recent changes in crude oil price and petroleum stocks for the week ending March 11th.
The report also reviews the subject of the accessibility of oil inventories in Europe and US now that there is an oil supply disruption from Libya. The EIA shows that OECD has high oil stocks in 2009 and 2010 due to the economic crisis; as of August 2010, the total liquid fuels the OECD countries had was estimated at 2,793 million barrels – all time high. Thus OECD countries are capable of meeting their demand and using these reserves (even if they are of high inventory base). The world oil consumption bounced back to its level before the economic crisis, and resulted in inventories being depleted but still high on historic level. As of January 2011, the IEA estimated total OECD commercial liquid fuel stocks at 2,695 million barrel and crude oil stocks are at 960 m/b, which is still high in historic terms.
The OECD shows high reserves due to the high fuel inventories in the US, mainly located in the Midwest. These fuel stocks aren’t easy, logistically speaking, to draw from, because there is lack of pipelines leading out of the Midwest. Thus, even if on paper there seems to be enough fuel inventories, in reality there could be bottlenecks that could lead to short term shortage in oil supply.
Petroleum Stocks, production and consumption
Petroleum stocks in the US keeps falling for the fifth straight week; last week they have declined by 0.3%, a decrease of 5.1 million barrels of crude oil to reach 1,766 million barrels – the lowest level since March 2010.
This fall is related to the decline of stocks of total gasoline by 1.8% or 4.1 million barrels– reaching 225 million barrels.
The average US productions (million of barrels a day) for the week of March 4th was 5.601 on a four week average, at the same level as last week, and higher by 1.7% compare to the average production at the same time last year;
Crude oil imports have decreased during the week of March 4th (4 week average) by 1.8% compare to the week of 25/2/2011, and also declined by 7.6% compare to last year’s same time.
The crude oil refinery inputs(4 week average) reached 13.785 (million b/d), which lower by 1.3% compare to the same week last year; it also fell by 0.7% compare to the previous week of 25/2/2011.
In total, there was a fall in petroleum stocks, imports and refineries inputs, a rise in oil prices and US production remained unchanged.
Propane prices fell for the first time this year: residential propane price fell by 0.02$ per gallon to reach 2.86$/g; propane stocks also broke its fall and rose; according to the latest report, they rose by 276 thousand barrels – a 1% incline – reaching 27.3 million barrels.
Crude oil price, Gasoline and Diesel prices for the week of March 11th
The U.S. average retail price on gasoline increased by 0.05 $ per gallon compare to the previous week’s average, to reach 3.57 $/g which is 0.78 $/g higher than for the same period in 2010.
Diesel prices also continue to rise for the fifteenth straight week, last week by 0.5 a cent compare to the previous week as it reached 3.88$/g – 0.95$/g higher than last year’s average price at same time. This is the longest streak gasoline prices increased since 1999.
Crude oil price (WTI spot) weekly average rose by 2.6% to reach an average 103.73$/b compare to last week’s average price of 101.05$/b. On average, crude oil price (WTI) daily change was -0.61%, however its price declined by 4% from beginning to end of the week.
For further reading (in this site):
- Oil prices outlook – 16 March
- How not to speculate on the WTI and Brent oil spread
- Crude oil price in 2010 and outlook for 2011
Previous posts on this subject:
- Petroleum stocks keep on falling | EIA raise oil forecasts – March 10
- Petroleum stocks fall as Middle East turmoil affecting imports – March 3
- Petroleum stocks continue falling | review of WTI Brent spread – February 25