Gold and Silver Prices – Daily Outlook for July 30

Last week started with sharp gains for gold and silver, but this week started with very modest gains. In the coming days, however, the volatility might start to pick up, which could result in sharper movement in the prices of gold and silver. Today the FOMC meeting will commence. The Fed’s meeting will conclude tomorrow that will follow a statement. Until then, the U.S housing data weren’t too positive as pending home sales index slipped by 0.4% to 110.9 in June. This news, however, didn’t stir up the markets. It seems that the markets remain poised for the FOMC meeting statement, the ECB rate decision and non-farm payroll report that will come out later this week. On today’s agenda: Governor Stevens speaks, German Consumer Climate and U.S Consumer Confidence.

Here is a short outlay for precious metals for Tuesday, July 30th:

Gold and Silver Prices Review – July Update         

On Monday, gold slightly rose by 0.52% to $1,328.40; Silver also bounced back by 0.46% to $19.85. During July, gold rose by 8.55%; silver, by 2.06%.

In the chart below are the normalized prices of gold and silver for 2013 (normalized to 100 as of June 28th). The prices of gold and silver have moved in an unclear trend in recent days.

Gold and silver outlook 2013  July 30The ratio between the two precious metals slightly increased on Monday to 66.92. During July, the ratio rose by 6.35% as gold moderately out-performed silver.

Gold  silver ratio 2013  July 30

See here the weekly outlook of gold and silver for July 29- August 2.

The gold and silver futures volumes of trade reached on Friday 251 thousand and 43 thousand, respectively. These numbers are higher than the volume traded in the past couple of weeks. If the volume will continue to increase, this could pressure up the volatility of bullion prices. The chart below shows the volume of trading gold and silver futures in the CME during June and July.

volume Gold & silver prices 2013  July 30

On Today’s Agenda

Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will give a speech at the Anika Foundation Luncheon supported by the Australian Business Economists and Macquarie Bank, in Sydney; in his upcoming talk, the Governor may refer to the recent RBA monetary policy meeting, in which the RBA left its interest rate flat; this speech may affect the Australian dollar, which is strongly linked with gold and silver;

Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey estimates Germany’s consumers’ economic climate including past and future economic conditions (on a monthly basis) for July. In the recent report for June 2013, the climate index slightly rose to 6.8;

U.S Consumer Confidence: Based on the latest monthly update, for May, the consumer confidence index rose to 81.4 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the June index may further rally; this report might affect bullion prices;

Currencies / Bullion Market – July Update

The Eur/ USD currency pair changed direction and slipped on Monday by 0.13% to 1.3262. During July, the Euro/USD rose by 2.07%. Further, other currencies such as the Aussie dollar also slightly depreciated yesterday against the U.S dollar by 0.57%. The correlations among gold, Euro and Aussie dollar remained strong, e.g. the correlation between the Euro/USD and gold price is 0.57 during July.  The chart below shows the linear correlations among precious metals and leading currency pairs during the month (up-to-date).

Correlation Gold and EURO USD 2013 July 30

Current Gold and Silver Rates as of July 30th

Gold (short term delivery) is traded at $1,325.30 per t oz. a $4.30 or 0.32% decrease as of 07:30*.

Silver (short term delivery) is at $19.75 per t oz – a 0.60% decrease as of 07:30*.

(* GMT)

Here is a reminder of the top events and publications that are scheduled for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):


04:45 – Governor Stevens speaks

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence


07:00 – German Retail Sales

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate

10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry

13:30 – First U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate

19:00 – FOMC Meeting

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