Silver and Gold Price Forecast for Wednesday November 27th 2013

Gold and silver prices remained nearly unchanged yesterday as the price of gold inched up and silver slightly declined. Their stagnation in the past three business days may have to do with the U.S holidays that will start this weekend and investors waiting for the Fed’s next move. In the meantime, the recent housing data came out yesterday: building permits sharply rose to 1.034 million during October – a 6.2% increase. Housing starts data weren’t released. U.S consumer confidence index fell again during November. The index reached 70.4, a 2 percentage points drop compared to October. These news items, however, didn’t have much of an effect on precious metals or USD. The U.S dollar slightly depreciated against other currencies such as Euro and Japanese yen. On today’s agenda: Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey, Second estimate of GB GDP Q3 2013, U.S. Jobless Claims, and U.S Core Durable Goods.

Here is a short overview for precious metals for Wednesday, November 27th:

Gold and Silver – November Overview

On Tuesday, gold inched up by 0.02% to $1,241.4; Silver slipped by 0.17% to $19.85. During November, gold declined by 6.21%; silver, by 9.09%. In the chart below are the normalized rates of bullion for 2013 (normalized to 100 as of October 31^st). The prices of gold and silver have had a downward trend during the past month.

The ratio between the two precious metals slightly rose again on Tuesday to 62.55. During November, the ratio rose by 3.16% as gold has moderately out-performed silver.

The gold and silver futures volumes of trade have risen again on Tuesday to reach 310 thousand and 96 thousand, respectively. Despite the sharp rise in volume of trade the prices of gold and silver remained nearly flat in the past several days.

On Today’s Agenda

Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey projects Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for November. In the latest report for October 2013, the climate index slightly fell to 7;

Second estimate of GB GDP Q3 2013: This report will present the revised estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the third quarter of 2013; during the second quarter the GB economy grew by 0.7% (Q-2-Q); in the early estimate, the second quarter GDP expanded by 0.7%; if the growth rate remains unchanged or very close to the first estimate, it could have little effect on the GB pound;

U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 24^th; in the previous report the jobless claims decreased by 21k to reach 323k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;

U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding October may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities. As of September 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose to $234.3 billion;

Currencies / Precious Metals Correlations – November Update

On Tuesday, the Eur/USD currency pair changed direction and rallied by 0.41% to 1.3572. During November, the Eur/USD fell by 0.09%. Further, other currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen also slightly appreciated yesterday against the U.S dollar by 0.02% and 0.41%, respectively. The correlations among gold, silver and Euro slightly weakened but is still robust, e.g. the correlation between the Euro/USD and gold price is 0.58 during October-November.

Here is a reminder of the main events and publications that are scheduled for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):

Today

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey

09:30 – Second estimate of GB GDP Q3 2013

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods

Tomorrow

All day – Germany’s CPI

08:55 – German Unemployment Rate

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks

13:30 – Canada’s Current Account

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