The gold and silver started off the week on a negative note as both precious metals prices resumed their downward trend from last week. Their recent fall, however, didn’t coincide with the appreciation of the Euro against the USD. The low volatility of precious metals is likely to continue this week considering the relatively light week we have. Will gold and silver continue to slowly decline this week? On today’s agenda: GB CPI and China New Loans.
Here is a short overview for precious metals for Tuesday, November 12th:
Gold and Silver – November Review
On Monday, gold slipped by 0.26% to $1,281.1; Silver, by 0.16% to $21.28. During November, gold decreased by 2.95%; silver, by 2.36%. In the chart below are the normalized prices of precious metals for 2013 (normalized to 100 as of October 15th). The prices of gold and silver have resumed their downward trend in recent weeks.
The ratio between the two precious metals slightly decreased on Monday to 60.20. During November, the ratio decreased by 0.61% as silver has moderately out-performed gold.
The gold and silver futures volumes of trade have fallen from last week and reached on Monday 124 thousand and 37 thousand, respectively. If the volume continues to be low in the coming days, this could imply the odds of sharp change in the rates of gold and silver as a result of low volume will drop.
GB CPI: In the previous monthly update regarding September 2013, the CPI remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.7%; if the inflation rate resumes its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;
China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent changes in China’s new loans. According to the latest update, the total loans rose for the second consecutive month; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;
Currencies / Precious Metals Correlations – November Update
On Monday, the Euro/ USD currency pair rose by 0.30% to 1.3407. During November, the Euro/USD fell by 1.6%. Conversely, other currencies such as the Aussie dollar also depreciated yesterday against the U.S dollar by 0.28%. The correlations among gold, silver and Euro remained robust in recent weeks, e.g. the correlation between the Euro/USD and gold price is 0.62 during October/November. The chart below shows the linear correlations among leading currencies pairs and precious metals percent changes.
Here is a reminder of the main events and publications that are scheduled for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
09:30 – GB CPI
Tentative – China New Loans
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change
10:30 –BOE Inflation Report
10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance
00:00 – Bernanke’s Speech
Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction
For further reading: