U.S. Consumer Confidence Changed Direction and Rose in July 2012

The U.S consumer confidence index changed direction and rose during July, after this index had declined during the past couple of months. .

According to the recent U.S. consumer confidence survey, the consumer confidence index declined in July compared with June’s index: The index reached in July 65.9 (1985=100) an increase of 3.2 percent points from 62.7 in June. Further, American consumers’ short term outlook in U.S. business conditions was more upbeat in July than a month earlier. Finally, the consumers’ assessment of current business and labor conditions has also improved during the month.

Note, this report was based on a survey conducted up to July 19th. In the last couple of weeks the situation seems to improve in the financial markets, (e.g. the American stock markets indexes rose during last week).

This consumer confidence index might be among the factors to curb the declined of natural gas prices: according to a study, there was a positive significant correlation between the “consumer confidence” news and natural gas prices i.e. this news has a strong and positive correlation with natural gas prices. Furthermore, the study also suggested a positive significant coefficient between this news and oil prices.

In this case, since the recent consumer confidence index rose, this means this news might have a positive effect on energy prices including oil and natural gas rates (at best).

Today when this consumer confidence survey was published, most of the U.S stock markets declined during the day including the DOW and S&P500. Further natural gas and oil prices also fell. Perhaps tomorrow’s publication of the FOMC statement might have raised the speculations levels that have adversely affected the energy prices.   

Current Nymex oil WTI, short term futures (August 2012 delivery) is traded at $87.95 per t oz. a $1.83 decrease or 2.04%, as of 19:08*.

Current Nymex Henry Hub natural gas, short term futures (August 2012 delivery) is traded at $3.19 per t oz. a $0.02 decrease or 0.65%, as of 19:07*.

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