The U.S consumer confidence index changed direction and rose during September, after this index had fallen during August. .
According to the latest U.S. consumer confidence survey, the consumer confidence index rose in September compared with August’s index: The index reached in September 70.3 (1985=100) an increase of 9 percent points from 61.3 in August. Further, American consumers’ short term outlook in U.S. business conditions also improved in September than a month earlier. Finally, the consumers’ assessment of current business and labor conditions were also more optimistic during the month than in August.
Note, this report was based on a survey conducted up to September 13th. In the last couple of weeks the situation didn’t seem to improve much in the financial markets, (e.g. the American stock markets indexes didn’t rise much during last week). Further, this survey was done before the announcement of the FOMC to launch QE3, which could also affect consumer confidence.
This consumer confidence index might be among the indexes to contribute to the recent rise of natural gas prices: according to a study, there was a positive significant correlation between the “consumer confidence” news and natural gas prices i.e. this news has a strong and positive correlation with natural gas prices. Furthermore, the study also suggested a positive significant relation between this news and oil prices.
In this case, since the recent consumer confidence index rose, this means this news might have a positive effect on energy prices including oil and natural gas rates (at best).
Today when this consumer confidence survey came out, most of the U.S stock markets slipped during the day including the DOW and S&P500. Alternatively, natural gas rose while oil prices slipped.
Current Nymex oil WTI, short term futures (October 2012 delivery) is traded at $91.45 per t oz. a $0.48 decrease or 0.52%, as of 19:09*.
Current Nymex Henry Hub natural gas, short term futures (October 2012 delivery) is traded at $2.89 per t oz. a $0.05 increase or 1.87%, as of 18:53*.
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