US Labor Market and UK’s Labour Comeback — MM #147

We start with the US labor market which is slowing down and may not be enough for a rate hike. We then cross the Atlantic to the UK’s June 8th elections, where the Labour Party made a surprising comeback. We finish off with a preview for a busy week that also includes the ECB.

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  1. Data dependent Fed?: The Non-Farm Payrolls report was mostly disappointing. Will the Fed hike anyway? They seem to be trapped in their own forward guidance but may slow things down later on. Kashkari was vindicated and may dissent once again. Will they downgrade the dot-plot?
  2. UK elections: A snap election that was supposed to turn into a landslide victory for the Conservatives evolved into a closer competition, with Labour making a comeback. With opinion polls all over the place, things could get quite messy, also during the vote. The turnout of young people is key. Where will the pound end the week?
  3. Preview: Apart from the UK elections, June 8th also features the ECB meeting, where Draghi is set to upgrade the Bank’s assessment, setting the stage for tapering QE. Also, note Comey’s testimony and other events.

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