In the recent Energy Information Administration petroleum report there is an analysis of the reasons behind the high gasoline prices which includes not only the high crude oil prices, but also domestic concerns that drove gasoline prices up; these concerns include the unplanned refinery outages and concerns over flooding of the Mississippi River that might impact refinery productions. These factors are among the major reasons for the current high gasoline prices in the US, according to the report.
That being said, EIA analysts are optimistic and think that the worst is over and estimate that, all things begin equal, gasoline prices should start to come down in the weeks to come.
Here is a weekly review of the EIA petroleum report regarding crude oil price and petroleum stocks for the week ending May 13th:
Petroleum Stocks, production and imports
U.S. Petroleum and oil stocks remained unchanged during last week after they inclined by 6.5 million barrels a week earlier. For the week ending on May 13th the oil stocks remained on 1,774.0 million barrels – the highest level since February 25th, 2011.
The chart below presents the petroleum and oil stocks levels compared to the WTI crude oil prices during 2010-2011.
The chart shows the current low petroleum and oil stocks compared to the same time during 2010; furthermore, the WTI spot oil prices is also very high compared to the same time last year, but at least there is decline in recent weeks. The linear correlation of these two data series (their weekly percent changes) is at -0.18, while their data series (the trend) have a -0.89 linear correlation.
The four week average US production (million of barrels a day) for the week of May 13th remained on 5.615, which at the same level as the average of the previous week, but was 1.8% above the average production at the same time last year;
Crude oil imports bounced back and rose (4 week average) by 1.5% compared to the week of 6/5/2011, but was 8.9% below the same time last year.
The crude oil refinery inputs (4 week average) reached 14.148 (million b/d), an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous week of 6/5/2011, but was 6.2% below the same time last year.
Below is a detailed recap of the information listed above:
Crude oil price, Gasoline and Diesel prices for the week ending on May 6th
The average U.S. gasoline retail price decreased for the first time since March 21st by half a cent per gallon compared to the previous week’s average, to reach 3.97 $/g, which is 1.10 $/g higher than for the same period in 2010.
The national average Diesel prices also declined by 4 cents compared to the previous week, and it reached 4.06$/g. which is 0.97$/g higher than last year’s average price at same time.
A detailed analysis on crude oil price for the week of May 13 is herein.
In total, during last week there were declines in oil prices, rises in imports and refineries inputs and no changes in US production and petroleum stocks.
Propane
According to recent report, propane stocks continued to rise; last week, the stocks inclined by 1,717 thousand barrels – a 5.97% increase – reaching 30.478 million barrels – the highest level since February 11, 2011.
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For further reading (in this site):
- Crude oil prices outlook – May 18
- Oil prices moderately declined last week – Weekly recap 9-13 May
- Crude oil prices Monthly outlook –May 2011
Previous posts on this subject:
- US Petroleum stocks keep on soaring – May 12
- Petroleum and oil stocks in the US continued to rise – May 5
- Petroleum stocks bounced back with a moderate rise – April 28