Financial Market Forecast for April 21-25

The energy commodities markets mostly heated up including oil and natural gas; precious metals cooled down following the positive reports from the U.S regarding this economy’s progress; in the forex market the USD rallied against leading currencies including Euro and Aussie dollar. For the week of April 21st to April 25th, several reports, decisions and speeches will come to fruition and may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; they include: Draghi’s speech, BOE rate decision, U.S new and pending home sales, GB net borrowing, Australia’s CPI, Canada’s core retail sales, U.S core durable goods, Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and China’s flash manufacturing PMI.

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 21st

23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in February 2014 the Japanese trade balance deficit narrowed to 1,130 billion yen (roughly $11.08 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s changes in its demand for goods and services;

Tuesday, April 22nd

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will present the changes in U.S. existing home sales during March 2014; in the last report regarding February, the number of homes sold inched down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.60 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;

Wednesday, April 23rd

00:30 – Australia’s CPI for Q1 2014: This quarterly report will pertains to the developments in the consumer price index. In the last report regarding the fourth quarter of 2013, the CPI rose to 0.8% compared to the third quarter and reached a growth rate of 2.7% compared to Q4 2012; this report could affect the Aussie dollar which is correlated with commodities prices;

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for April. Last month’s report referring to March 2014 the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is contracting at a faster rate. If in the upcoming update the PMI index continues to decline, it could signal China’s economy isn’t growing. This may also adversely affect commodities prices;

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly report regarding March 2014, France’s PMI rose to 51.9 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing at a faster pace. Germany’s PMI inched down to 53.8. This report serves estimates to the changes in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the previous MPC meeting, the Bank left its cash rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;

09:30 – Great Britain Net Borrowing: According to last month’s report, public sector’s net borrowing in Great Britain reached 7.5 billion pounds;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (February 2014): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of February. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the last report regarding January 2014, manufacturing sales rose by 1%;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to March 2014; in the recent report (opens pdf; for February), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 440,000 – a 6% drop (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep falling, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is cooling down; this news may also affect theUS dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 18th; the report will also show the changes in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some perspective regarding the recent shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;

Thursday, April 24th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the developments (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of April. In the last report regarding March 2014, the business climate index slightly decreased to 110.7;

10:00 – Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak at the “De Nederlandsche Bank 200 years: Central Banking in the Next Two Decades” conference, in Amsterdam; his words could shift the direction of the Euro;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly report will pertain to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 18th; in the recent report the jobless claims rose by 2k to reach 304k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding March may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of February 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased to $229.4 billion; if this report shows another rise in new orders, then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report refers to the U.S. natural gas market; the report shows the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 18th;

Friday, April 25th

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 1.7%; this report could affect the British pound;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index slipped to 80;

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