Weekly Outlook for 2-6 April 2012

For the first week of April there are several publications and monetary decisions that may stir up the financial markets. Among the reports to be published and decisions are: U.S. manufacturing PMI, GB rate decision, minutes of last FOMC meeting, GB manufacturing production, DCB rate decision, U.S non-farm payroll report, RBA cash rate decision, EU unemployment rate, G7 meeting, and U.S. unemployment claims. Here is an economic news calendar forecast for the week of April 2nd to April 6th that highlights news items regarding to the U.S., Canada, EU, Great Britain, and Australia.   

(All times GMT):

  • Monday 2nd of April 10:00 – Euro Area Unemployment Rate: the Euro Area unemployment rate sharply rose from 10.3% in December to 10.7% in January; this report may affect Euro traders if there will be a sharp shift in this figure;
  • Monday 2nd of April 15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to the monthly development in the manufacturing sector on a national level during March 2012. During February 2012 the index edged down to 52.4%. but still means the manufacturing is growing (just at a slightly slower pace); this index might affect forex, crude oil and natural gas markets (see here my review of last PMI report);
  • Monday 2nd of April 02:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly report will examine the developments in Australia’s retail sales report for February 2012. the retail sales (seasonally adjusted) edged up by 0.3% in January; this news may affect the strength of the Aussie dollar;
  • Tuesday 3rd of April 4:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank remained unchanged at 4.25% since December 2011; the upcoming RBA’s rate decision may affect the AUD/USD that is strongly related with commodities prices;
  • Tuesday 3rd of April 15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will present the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during February; this report will offer some insight to the progress of the U.S economy and could affect the direction of the U.S dollar;
  • Tuesday 3rd of April all day – G7 Meeting: the financial ministers of the seven top counties will convene during the day; if they will produce a big headline it could stir up the financial markets;
  • Tuesday 3rd of April 19:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes: Following the last FOMC meeting, in which it was decided not to introduce nay additional monetary expansion measures, the market promptly reacted to this news as gold and silver prices sharply fell. The minutes of the FOMC meeting might bring some perspective behind this decision regarding the future steps of the FOMC;
  • Tuesday 3rd of April 2:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will pertain February 2012. In the previous report, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services declined from a surplus of $1,325 million in December 2011 to a $673 million deficit in January 2012. The export of non-monetary gold sharply fell by $1,070 million (56%); if the gold exports will continue to contract in February, it might suggest a drop in demand for non-monetary gold that could explain the fall in gold prices (see here last report);


  • Wednesday 4th of April 12:00 – German Factory orders: this report will show the changes in the Germany factory orders during February; this news could indicate the progress of the German Economy and consequently may affect foreign exchange and commodities traders;
  • Wednesday 4th of April 12:45 – ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision: In previous rate decision the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi kept the rate unchanged at 1%; as of February, the Euro Area inflation remained at annual rate of 2.7%, while the EU unemployment increased to 10.7% and the EU GDP in the fourth quarter contracted by 0.3% . This means the EU economy is still not doing well to say the least. If ECB will cut the interest rates it is likely to pressure further down the Euro to US dollar exchange rate;
  • Wednesday 4th of April 13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will estimate the U.S employment development during the month of March 2012 in anticipation for the upcoming no-farm report to be published on Friday;
  • Wednesday 4th of April – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the developments in the non-manufacturing sector during March 2012. During February 2012 this index moderately increased to 57.3%; this index may affect forex and commodities trading (for the recent report);
  • Wednesday 4th of April 15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 30th;


  • Thursday 5th of April 08:00 – Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves: the central bank of Switzerland will release the total value of its foreign currencies reserves during March;
  • Thursday 5th of April 09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production : this monthly report will present the monthly changes in the British manufacturing production for February; in the previous report regarding January the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index rose by 0.3% (M-2-M), and the index of production also edged up by 0.1%; this news may influence GBP traders;
  • Thursday 5th of April 12:00 – Great Britain Bank Rate & Asset Purchase Plan : Bank of England will decide on its basic rate for April 2012 and the progress of its asset purchase plan; as of March the BOE’s rate is still flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan of £325 billion continues;
  • Thursday 5th of April 12:00 – Canada Unemployment Rate and Employment Report: In the previous employment report for February 2012, unemployment edged up 0.2 percent points to 7.4%; the employment rose by 121k. the upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently also affect the prices of energy commodities including crude oil and natural gas prices; take into account that Canada is among the leading exporters of these commodities to the U.S (see here the recent report);
  • Thursday 5th of April 13:30 – U.S. Department of Labor– Jobless Claims Weekly Update:  this weekly update will refer to he changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 31st; this upcoming weekly update may affect the strength of the US dollar and consequently may affect the direction of commodities prices;
  • Thursday 5th of April 15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Market Report: this EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will present the recent changes natural gas production, storage, consumption and price developments for the week ending on March 30th; if the natural gas storage will continue to stock up, it may adversely affect the prices of natural gas in the U.S;
  • Friday 6th of April 13:30 – U.S. Unemployment Rate Report & Non-farm Employment Change: in the recent March report regarding February 2012, the labor market continued to  improve as the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 227k; the U.S unemployment rate remained at 8.3%; this report might affect not only the U.S dollar, but also gold and silver prices (see here my last review on the U.S employment report).

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