Last week was characterized with high volatility, in which gold and silver fell precipitately, other commodities such as oil also fell, the Euro and Aussie dollar depreciated against the USD and natural gas spiked. The upcoming week might not be as volatile as last week was but several important reports could influence traders. Specifically, several reports, speeches and publications may affect the financial markets. These include: U.S GDP for Q1 2013, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S existing home sales, EU manufacturing PMI, German climate survey, BOJ monetary policy statement and economic outlook, Canada’s retail sales, GB GDP for Q1 2013, governor Carney’s speech, U.S new home sales, U.S core durable goods and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of April 22nd to April 26th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, and Great Britain.
(All times GMT):
Sunday, April 21st
18:30 – Deutsche Bundesbank President Weidmann Speaks: President Jens Weidmann will give a speech in Washington. His speech might influence Euro traders especially if he will hint again on the ECB’s future plans to cut its short term interest rate;
Monday, April 22nd
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the developments in U.S. existing home sales for March 2013; in the recent report regarding February 2013 the number of homes sold slightly rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million houses; if this trend will continue, it might pressure up the U.S dollar;
02:45 – China flash Manufacturing PMI: this index will be based on a survey of 800 companies in 20 industries in China; as of the previous the HSBC Manufacturing PMI survey regarding March 2013 the Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7; this index indicates the growth in China’s manufacturing sectors; if the index will continue to rise, this may positively affect commodities rates;
Tuesday, April 23rd
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the recent monthly report regarding March 2013, the German PMI fell to 48.9 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting at a slow rate. This report serves as an indicator to the economic developments of the Euro Area’s leading economies’ manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
13:30 – Canada Retails Sales (February 2013): This report will pertain to the retails sales in Canada as of February. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities rates. In the previous report regarding January 2013, retails sales rose by 0.5%.
13:45 – BOC Gov Carney Speaks: Carney will testify before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa. His speech might affect the Canadian dollar if his speech will provide a surprising headline;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to March 2013; in the previous report (opens pdf; for February), the sales of new homes fell to an annual rate of 411,000 – a 6% drop (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to fall, it may indicate a sign of a slowdown in the recovery in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the USD.
00:30 – Australia’s CPI for Q1 2013: This quarterly report will pertain to the changes in the consumer price index. In the recent report regarding the fourth quarter of 2012, the CPI rose by 0.2% compared to the third quarter and by 2.2% compared to Q4 2011; this report could affect the Aussie dollar which is correlated with commodities prices;
Wednesday, April 24th
09:00 – German Business Climate Survey: This survey estimates the changes (on a monthly basis) of the business climate of Germany as of April. In the recent report for March 2013, the business climate index fell from 107.4 in February to 106.7 in March; if this trend will continue, it might pressure down the Euro.
Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: the Italian government will issue its monthly with bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the last week of March, the average rate reached 2.66% - a drop in rate compare to the previous month;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will pertain to the shifts in U.S. orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector for March 2013. This report may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil. As of February 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased to $232.10 billion; if this report will present another rise in new orders then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 20th; in the latest update for April 13th, stockpiles rose again by 2.6 ml bl to reach 1,781.8 ml bl.
21:15 – BOC Gov Carney Speaks: Carney will give another speech this week, this time before the Standing Committee on Banking, Trade, and Commerce, in Ottawa;
Thursday, April 25th
09:30 – Flash GB GDP Q1 2013: This report will present the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the first quarter of 2013; during the fourth quarter the GB economy contracted by 0.3% (Q-2-Q);
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 20th; in the previous report the jobless claims rose by 4k to reach 348k; this upcoming weekly report may affect the direction of U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of April 20th; in latest weekly report, natural gas storage rose by 31 Bcf to 1,704 Bcf;
Friday, April 26th
Tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision, Outlook and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will come out with its interest rate decision, monetary policy for May and its outlook on the economy. Following the Bank’s decision to double its inflation target and augment its asset purchase program the Japanese yen tumbled down against the USD and Euro. Will the BOJ surprise again? In the latest G20 Meeting didn’t lead to any big statement. So at least Japan is still off the hook on its monetary easing plan. If the Bank will surprise and change its current monetary policy or its outlook for Japanese economy, this might pull the Japanese yen even further down;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: this report provides an estimate to the Swiss economy in the months to come;
09:00 – SNB Chairman Jordan’s Speech: the Swiss National Bank Chairman will publicly speak; if he will announce or imply of any shifts to the monetary policy of the SNB it could affect the Swiss Franc;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area during March 2013. In the previous February report, the annual growth rate for M3 fell to 3.1%; M1 increased to 7.0%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -0.4%. This news suggests the EU economy isn’t growing much; if this trend will continue it may adversely affect the Euro/USD and consequently commodities;
13:30 – First U.S GDP 1Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the latest estimate the U.S GDP edged up by 0.1% in the fourth quarter; in the third quarter the GDP grew by 2.7%; in the 2Q2012 the GDP growth rate was 1.7% (annual rate). If the growth rate from fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013 will dwindle again, this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices.
For further reading:
- Is the Golden Era of Gold Over?
- Gold and Silver Outlook for April
- Why Gold Isn’t Pulling Up?
- Gold and Silver Yearly Outlook For 2013