Weekly Outlook for 23-27 April 2012

The upcoming week will bring many news items on the agenda and is likely to stir up the financial markets after the last couple of weeks in which stocks commodities and forex didn’t move much in any direction. Among the news items on the agenda are: FOMC meeting and economic projection, U.S. consumer confidence report, U.S new home sales, Canada’s retails sales report, ECB President speech, U.S and U.K GDP, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for the week of April 23rd to 27th that highlights news items regarding to the U.S., Canada, EU, China, Japan and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 23rd

3:30– China flash Manufacturing PMI: this index will cover 800 companies in 20 industries in China; according to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI report regarding February 2012 the Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.1; this index indicates the changes in China’s manufacturing sectors growth rate; if this upward trend will continue, this may also positively affect commodities prices;

09:00 – Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (April 2012): In the last flash report regarding March 2012, the Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.7, i.e a contraction. This report will provide an indicator to the economic development of the Euro zone’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn might affect the Euro/USD exchange rate and consequently also major commodities prices;

Tuesday, April 24th

09:30 – Great Britain Net borrowing: this update will show the monthly changes in the public sector net borrowing for March 2012; as of February 2011, the net borrowing reached £15.2 billion;

All Day – G7 Summit: the G7 Meeting will be held and if there will be big headlines from this Summit it may have some effect on the financial markets;

13:30 –Retails Sales Canada (February 2012): This report examines the development in the retails sales in Canada during February 2012. It may affect the direction of USD/CAD exchange rate. In the previous report regarding January 2012, retails sales slightly rose by 0.5% (see here the full report);

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: according to the previous report, the consumer confidence index decreased in March (M-o-M). The current expectations are that the April index may change direction and edge up; this report might affect commodities market especially the natural gas market;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will present the changes in new home sales March 2012; in the previous report (February 2012), the sales of new homes reached an annual rate of 313,000 – a 1.6% decrease compared (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to fall, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the path of the US dollar.

Wednesday, April 25th

08:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Following the April ECB rate decision in which the rate wasn’t changed at 1% Mario Draghi will speak and may refer to ECB’s plan to calm the markets including implementing LTRO 3 or resuming the SMP. His speech may influence the direction of the Euro/USD currencies pair;

09:30 – Great Britain GDP Q1 2012: this report will show the growth rate of GB’s GDP for the first quarter of 2012 (first estimate);; in the Q4 2012, the GDP contracted by 0.3%; if this contraction will continue it could also adversely affect the British pound;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly update will examine the developments in U.S. orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector during March 2012. This report may indirectly present the developments in U.S. demand for commodities including crude oil. According to a estimate for February 2012, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased by $4.5 billion to $211.8 billion; if this report will continue to be positive then it could strengthen the US dollar and also affect the direction of gold oil and silver prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 20th; in the previous weekly update for April 13th, stockpiles decreased by 2.2 million bbl to 1,763.6 million bl;

17:30 – FOMC Meeting (Statement): The FOMC will convene for the third time this year and will decide over a two day of meetings on the its interest rate and monetary policy; I think the FOMC won’t decide on another stimulus plan, especially since the U.S’s economic progress is still moving up (e.g. the U.S labor market and U.S GDP are still growing); the FOMC statement may affect the strength of US dollar and more than that it will affect gold and silver prices; I speculate that if there won’t be another call for a stimulus plan or a hint  for it in the near future, gold and silver prices are likely to sharply fall;

19:00 – FOMC Economic Projection: this projection is updated every quarter and includes the FOMC’s estimate on U.S economic growth and inflation over the next couple of years. This projection could affect the strength of the US dollar; based on this projection, it could also explain the FOMC monetary policy;

19:15 – FOMC Press Conference – Bernanke Speaks: following the FOMC meeting the Chairman of the Fed will give a speech to sum up the main points of the recent FOMC; Bernanke’s speech could affect stocks, commodities and forex traders alike;

Thursday, April 26th

13:30 – U.S. Department of Labor– Jobless Claims Weekly Update:  this report will refer to the weekly development in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 21st; in the previous update the jobless claims edged down to 386,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the path of the US dollar and consequently commodities prices;

Tentative – Italian 10 year bond Auction: this Auction will follow last week’s Spanish debt auction; if the Italian debt auction will go well it may ease some of the concerns regarding the EU debt crisis;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for March 2012; in the previous report the pending home sales index declined by 0.5% (month-over-month). These data are another indicator for the changes in America’s real estate market; based on last week’s results on housing sales (new and existing) the pending sales may continue to decline. In such a case US dollar may weaken;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Report: this EIA weekly update regarding the U.S. natural gas market will update on the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of April 20th; in the recent update, natural gas storage rose by 25 Bcf to 2,512 Bcf; if the natural gas storage will keep rising, it may continue adversely affecting the prices of U.S natural gas;

Tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decision and monetary policy. Up to now, BOJ kept the interest rate flat at 0 to 0.1 percent. If the BOJ will introduce additional monetary stimulus plans, it could affect the Yen and commodities prices;

Friday April 27th

10:30 – KOF Economic Barometer: this report offers an outlook of the Swiss economy in the months to come. In the previous press release, the report predicted that the Swiss Economy is headed towards an expansion in 2012;

13:30 – First U.S GDP 1Q 2012 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2012 real GDP growth. In the 4Q2011 the GDP growth rate reached 3%, compared with 1.8% increase at 3Q2011. The current expectations are that the growth rate in the first quarter will be similar to the fourth quarter of 2012. This news could have substantial effect on forex and commodities traders (for the final estimate of 4Q GDP).

Tentative – Bank of Japan Press Conference: Following the Bank’s rate decision a press conference will be held; if there will be big headlines from this conference it could affect not only the Yen but also other currencies and commodities prices;

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