Weekly Outlook for April 30 –May 4 2012

Despite the high expectations for dramatic turns during last week’s big news items including the FOMC meeting and U.S GDP for Q1 2012, eventually there were little movements in the major forex and commodities markets. As we are entering a new month and a new week, let’s examine the main events and news items that may affect the financial markets including: U.S ISM manufacturing PMI, ECB rate decision, EU M1, M3, China’s manufacturing PMI, Canada’s GDP, U.S non-farm payroll report and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for the week of April 30th to May 4th referring to the U.S., Canada, EU, China, Australia and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 30th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will present the development of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area during March 2012. In the previous February report, the annual growth rate for M3 sharply increased to 2.8%. The M1 also increased to 2.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector declined to 1.1% in February. If the M1 and M3 will continue to rise according to the upcoming April report it could serve as another indicator for the rising inflation pressures  in the  Euro Area, and it  may affect the upcoming ECB interest rate decision;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: the report will present the developments in major industrial sectors for February 2012. In the previous report regarding January 2012, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.1%. This report may affect the strength of the Canadian dollar currency which is strongly linked with major commodities prices;

2:00– China Manufacturing PMI: according to the previous Manufacturing PMI report regarding March 2012 the Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1; this index indicates the developments in China’s manufacturing sectors; if this upward trend will continue, this may also positively affect commodities prices;

Tuesday, May 1st

4:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank remained flat at 4.25% since December 2011; if the RBA will decide to change the rate this news may affect the Aussie dollar that is strongly related with commodities prices;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to Great Britain’s changes in manufacturing sector during April 2012. In the previous report regarding March 2012 the index edged down to 52.1%. This rate means the manufacturing sector is still expanding but at a slightly slower pace; this index might affect GB Pound;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to the monthly development in the manufacturing sector on a national level during April 2012. During March 2012 the index edged up to 53.4%, which means the manufacturing is growing at a slightly faster pace; this index might affect forex, crude oil and natural gas markets;

Wednesday, May 2nd

10:00 – Euro Area Unemployment Rate: the Euro Area unemployment rate edged up from 10.7% in January to 10.8% in February; if this upward trend will continue it may adversely affect the direction of the Euro;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will announce its estimate for the upcoming U.S non-farm payroll change during the month of April 2012 in anticipation for the upcoming no-farm report to be published by Friday;

15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will show the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during February; this report will offer some insight to the progress of the U.S economy and could affect the path of the U.S dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 27th; in the previous weekly update for April 20th, stockpiles remained flat at 1,763.6 million bl;

Thursday, May 3rd

13:30 – U.S. Department of Labor– Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this report will refer to the weekly changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 28th; in the previous update the jobless claims slipped to 388,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the direction of the U.S dollar and consequently commodities prices;

13:30 – ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision: In previous interest rate decision the President of ECB, Mario Draghi left the rate flat at 1%; as of March, the Euro Area inflation remained at annual rate of 2.7%, while the EU unemployment edged up to 10.8% and the EU GDP in the Q4 2011 contracted by 0.3% . Due to he recent developments in Spain and Italy and ongoing perils the EU has forthcoming, ECB might consider introducing additional monetary easing steps  ( e.g. LTRO) or perhaps another interest rate reduction; if the ECB will make a move in these directions, it may affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate and perhaps even push it out of its current range;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will show the developments in the non-manufacturing sector during April 2012. During March 2012 this index moderately declined to 56% – this still means the non-manufacturing is expanding but only in a slightly slower pace than before; this index may affect forex and commodities trading;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Report: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will update on the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of April 27th; in the recent report, natural gas storage increased by 36 Bcf to 2,548 Bcf; if the natural gas storage will keep increasing, it may adversely affecting U.S natural gas prices;

Friday May 4th

13:30 – U.S. Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payroll Report: in the recent report regarding March 2012, the labor market didn’t improve as it did in the previous months as the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by only 120k; the U.S unemployment rate slipped to 8.2%; if the upcoming report will be positive and reach the 180-200 thousand mark (in additional jobs), this may lower the chances of the Fed to introduce additional stimulus plan in the future FOMC meeting; this report might affect not only the U.S dollar, but also gold and silver prices (see here my last review on the U.S employment report).

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