The prices of major commodities including gold, crude oil and silver tumbled down during most of last week. Conversely, major currencies moved in a mixed trend: The Euro rose against the USD while the Japanese Yen fell against the USD. Will commodities continue to decline next week? In the upcoming week several reports, summits and speeches may affect the financial markets. These include: U.S retail sales, Australia’s employment update, Bernanke’s speech, EU Economic Summit, China’s new loans, U.S consumer sentiment, U.S industrial production, OPEC monthly report, Japan’s current account, China’s new loans, Great Britain manufacturing production, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of April 8th to April 12th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, Japan, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.
(All times GMT):
Monday, April 8th
00:50 – Japan Current Account: this report will show the developments in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the strength of the Yen;
11:00– German Industrial Production: This report will refer to the shifts in the industrial production of the German for March; in the previous report the German industrial production remained unchanged (M-O-M) during February;
23:15 – Bernanke’s Speech: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will give a speech at the the 2013 Financial Markets Conference, Atlanta, Georgia. The title of his speech is “Stress-Testing Banks: What Have We Learned?“. Following the previous FOMC meeting and Bernanke’s testimony from back in March, the Chairman of Fed didn’t offer any input behind the future steps of the Fed. I suspect this speech will have little effect on the forex and commodities markets;
23:50 – Bank of Japan –Monetary Policy Minutes: Bank of Japan will come out with the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting and rate decision. In the latest meeting, BOJ decided it will augment its monetary base within the next couple of years; the Bank also raised its inflation target to 2%. The minutes could offer some additional information behind the recent decision and could affect the Yen, other currencies and commodities;
Tentative – China’s CPI: during February, the Chinese inflation rate rose to an annual rate of 3.2%; this rate remains below China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. If the inflation will continue rise, it could indicate that China’s economic progress is heating up again; China is among the leading countries in importing commodities such as gold and oil;
Tuesday, April 9th
08:15 – Swiss Inflation: this report will show to the monthly shifts in the Swiss consumer price index as of March 2013; in the recent report regarding January the CPI rose by 0.3%;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will preset the yearly rate of GB’s manufacturing production for February; in the previous report regarding January 2013 the index changed course and fell by 1.5% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;
Tentative – China New Loans: This report will refer to the recent developments in China’s new loans. According to the recent report, the total loans changed course and fell; this report is another indicator to the economic progress of China;
Wednesday, April 10th
Tentative –China‘s Trade Balance: according to the recent monthly update, China’s trade balance fell again to a $15.3 billion surplus; if the surplus will further shrink, it could indicate that China’s economic growth is slowing down and thus may negatively affect prices of commodities.
Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this monthly update will present the changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide as of March 2013; this update will also refer to the changes in the production of OPEC countries last month; this news may affect the direction of oil rates (See here a summary of the previous report);
08:45 – French Industrial Production: The forthcoming report will refer to March 2013. In the recent update, the industrial production tumbled down by 1.2% during February;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 5th; in the recent update for March 29th, stockpiles remained nearly unchanged as they edged down by 0.1 ml bl to reach 1,773.3 ml bl.
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting in March: Following the March FOMC meeting, in which the Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged, this news had a moderate effect on the prices of precious metals. If the Fed won’t augment its current QE3, the prices of gold and silver might continue to dwindle. The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting might add some insight behind the future steps the Fed is planning; the minutes might shed some light on the Fed’s exit strategy for its current QE program. It might show if the Fed is planning to step up and raise its asset purchase program. Either way, the minutes might affect the direction of precious metals;
19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming update will refer to March 2013; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding February the deficit sharply rose by $203 billion; the total deficit for the fiscal year of 2013 reached $493 billion. In comparison, the deficit in the same time in 2012 was $580.8 billion; this is decrease of 36.5% compared to 2012;
Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue its monthly with bond auction; in the recent auction, which was held at the middle of March, the average rate reached 2.03% – slightly lower than in the precious auction;
02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the previous report regarding February 2013 the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 5.4%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 71,500 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);
Thursday, April 11th
09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for March analyzes the economic shifts of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may shed some light on the expectations of the EU growth;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: the upcoming monthly repot will present an updated (as of April) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;
Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: the Italian government will come out with its monthly with bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which took place at the last week of March, the average rate reached 4.66% – a lower rate than February’s auction;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will pertain to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 5th; in the recent report the jobless claims rose by 28k to reach 385k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the path of U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 5th; in recent weekly update, natural gas storage fell again by 94 Bcf to 1,687 Bcf;
Friday, April 12th
10:00 –EU Industrial Production: this report will show the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of March; as of February, the production declined by 0.4%; this report may affect the euro/usd;
All Day (two days Summit) – Euro-Group Summit: In this summit, the EU ministers of finance are likely to refer to the Cyprus debt crisis. They will convene in Dublin. In this summit the EU ministers are likely to go over steps needed to take vis-à-vis the Cyprus bailout;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will show the changes in the PPI during March 2013, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ side. In the previous report regarding February, this index for finished goods increased by 0.7% compared with January’s rate and by 1.7% in the past 12 months; this news might affect the path of commodities rates;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will show the monthly developments in the retail sales and food services for March; in the recent report regarding February, the retail sales rose by 1.1% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales increased by 5% in February compared to January 2013; this report could signal the developments in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect oil prices in the U.S;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will come out with its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer an insight to latest changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; based on the recent update, the sentiment index changed direction and fell to 71.8;
15:30 – Bernanke’s Speech: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will give another speech this week at the 2013 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research. The title of his speech is “Creating Resilient Communities“.
For further reading:
- Gold and Silver Outlook for April
- Why Gold Isn’t Pulling Up?
- Gold and Silver Yearly Outlook For 2013
- QE3 Is Here, So Why Gold isn’t Pulling Up?