Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 6-10

During last week there was a rise in the forex and commodities markets volatility: the decision of the FOMC and ECB to keep policy unchanged dragged the down the markets, while the recent non-farm payroll report changed the market sentiment as many commodities rates and exchange rates (such as Euro, CHF, Aussie dollar) hiked. Will this high volatility continue during this upcoming week?  There are several important publications, speeches and reports that may affect the financial markets this week including: U.S trade balance, China’s CPI, Bernanke’s speech, Japan’s rate decision, RBA cash rate decision, U.S federal balance, Canada’s trade balance, OPEC monthly report, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for August 6th to August 10th regarding the U.S., EU, China, Japan, Australia, GB and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 6th

14:00 – Bernanke’s Speech: Following last week’s FOMC decision to keep monetary policy unchanged, the markets will continue to look for hints in regards to the future steps of the FOMC. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will talk before the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth. The title of the speech is “Economic Measurement “;

Tuesday, August 7th

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank remained unchanged at 3.5% – the lowest level since the end of 2009. If the RBA will decide to lower the rate this news may affect the Aussie dollar that is strongly correlated with commodities prices;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will show the yearly rate of GB’s manufacturing production for June; in the last report regarding April the index rose by 1.2% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

19:30 – Bernanke’s Speech: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will talk about Financial Education;    

Wednesday, August 8th

10:30 – Great Britain Inflation Report: BOE will issue its quarterly report on the inflation in Great Britain. This news may influence British pound traders;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 3rd; in the recent weekly update for July 27th, stockpiles declined by 7.2 million bl to 1,801 million bl;

18:00 – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue another bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held at the second week of July, the rate reached 1.46%;

Tentative – German 10 Year Bond Auction: the German government will issue another bond auction; in the latent bond auction, which was held at the middle of July, the rate reached 1.31%;

02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the previous report regarding June 2012 the rate of unemployment edged up to 5.2%; the number of employed declined by 27,000 people; the number of unemployed increased by 7,200 during June compared with May‘s numbers. This report could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

02:30 – Chinese CPI: during June the Chinese inflation rate declined to an annual rate of 2.2%; this rate is below China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. If the inflation will continue to dwindle it could indicate that China’s economic progress continues to slow down; China is among the leading countries in importing commodities such as gold and oil;

Tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate and monetary policy for the August. Up to now, BOJ kept the interest rate unchanged at 0 to 0.1 percent. If the BOJ will introduce a new monetary stimulus plan, it might affect the Yen, other exchange rates and commodities rates;

Thursday, August 9th

9:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for July 2012 examines the economic developments of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and government’s debt; this report might provide some insight into the updated expectations of the Euro Area growth;

13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding May 2012, exports remained nearly unchanged while imports rose by 0.4%; as a result, the trade balance declined from a $623 million deficit in April to $793 million deficit in May; this report may affect the Canadian dollar which tends to be strongly correlated with prices of gold and crude oil;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for June 2012 will present the recent changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as oil, natural gas and gold; according to the previous American trade balance report regarding May 2012 the goods and services deficit declined during the month to $48.7 billion.

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this update will refer to the weekly developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 3rd; in the latest update the jobless claims rose by 8k to 365,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities prices;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of August 3rd; in the previous weekly update, natural gas storage increased by 28 Bcf to 3,217 Bcf;

Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this report will present the main changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also refer to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during July 2012; this news may affect oil prices (See here a summary of the previous July report);

Friday August 10th

09:30 – Great Britain PPI Input: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s producer price index for July 2012; in the last report regarding June the input price declined by 2.2% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the previous employment report for June 2012, unemployment edged down to 7.2%; the employment rose by 181k during the past twelve months. The upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently the rates of energy commodities including oil and natural gas (see here the recent report);

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will present the changes in the U.S federal balance for July 2012; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding June the deficit rose by $59 billion to a deficit of $904 billion for the fiscal year of 2012; this is a decrease of 6.9% compared to 2011;

Tentative –China’s Trade Balance: according to the latest report, China’s trade balance rose from a $18.7 billion surplus to a $31.7 billion surplus; if the surplus will further rise, it could indicate that China’s economic growth is progressing and thus may positively affect prices of commodities;

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will show the recent changes in China’s new loans given during the previous month. According to the previous report, the total loans rose mainly after the BOC had cut the interest rate and eased the restrictions on commercial banks regarding new loans;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: this upcoming monthly report will show an updated (as of July) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2012 and 2013 (See here a summary of the recent report);

For further reading: