Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for January 14-18

The recent decision of ECB to keep the short term interest rates unchanged along with Mario Draghi’s reassuring speech about the future progress of the EU in 2013 may have helped rally not only commodities prices but also the Euro/USD by the end of last week. Major commodities prices including gold, silver and oil slightly increased last week. Will this slow rise continue? Next week several reports and speeches may affect the financial markets. These include: U.S CPI, Bernanke’s speech, Canada’s manufacturing sales, Philly Fed survey, U.S PPI, , China’s GDP for the fourth quarter, Australia’s employment report, U.S retail sales, Spain’s bond auction, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar projection for January 14th to January 18th regarding the U.S, EU, Canada, China, Australia and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, January 14th

15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: this quarterly report provides an analysis of Canada’s businesses and offers some perspective of what the outlook for Canada’s economy;

21:00 – Bernanke’s Speech: In anticipation for the government tackling raising the debt ceiling and making spending cuts by February and in preparation for the next FOMC meeting to be held by the end of January, many will look towards Bernanke’s speech that could offer some insight behind the Fed’s future monetary steps. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will talk at the University of Michigan, in Ann Arbo. He is likely to refer to the Fed’s monetary policy;

Tuesday, January 15th

09:30 – Great Britain CPI: this report will refer to the yearly rate of GB’s consumer price index as of December 2012; in the recent report regarding November the annual CPI remained at 2.7%; if this the inflation will rise, it could lower the odds of the MPC expanding its asset purchase program; this news might affect the British pound;

Tentative – BOE Inflation Estimate: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s inflation according to Bank of England;  it will be published as a letter only if the inflation is exceed 3% or below 1%;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will presents the monthly developments in the retail sales and food services for December; in the recent report regarding November, the retail sales rose by 0.3% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales fell by 4% in November compared to October; this report could signal the changes in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect oil prices;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will show the changes in the PPI during December 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ stand point. In the latest report regarding November this index for finished goods fell by 0.8% compared with October’s rate but rose by 1.5% in the last 12 months; this news might affect commodities prices;

Wednesday, January 16th

10:00 – Euro Area CPI: according to the recent report the annual CPI declined to 2.2%, which is slightly higher than ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will decline again, it could raise the odds of ECB lower its cash rate in the near future;

13:30 –U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will pertain to the main changes in the core consumer price index for December 2012. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics during November, the CPI fell by 0.3% (M-o-M); the core CPI edged up by 0.2%; the core index rose over the last twelve months by 1.9%.

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will show the developments in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for November 2012. In the recent report regarding October 2012, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached only $1.3 billion;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will be publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 11th; in the recent update for January 4th, stockpiles rose by 10 ml bl to reach 1,795.4 ml bl.

02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the last report regarding November 2012 the rate of unemployment declined to 5.2%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 13,900 people; the number of unemployed declined by 16,300 during November compared to October. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this monthly update will show the shifts in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide as of December; the report will also pertain to the developments in the production of OPEC countries last month; this news may affect oil prices (See here a summary of the previous report);

Thursday, January 17th

Tentative – French 10 Year Bond Auction: the French government will come up with its monthly bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held during by the beginning of January, the average rate reached 2.07%;

9:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for December analyzes the economic changes of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this report might provide some insight into the updated expectations of the EU growth;

Tentative – Spanish 10 Year Bond Auction: the Spanish government will have another monthly bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held during the first week of December, the average rate reached 5.29% – a slightly lower rate than in the recent auction; if the rate will continue to fall, it could suggest the EU is regaining the trust of investors;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this report will pertain to the weekly shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 11th; in the previous report the jobless claims rose by 4k to reach 371k; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: the U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts update for December 2012; this report was historically linked with gold price – as housing starts decline, gold prices tended to rise the following day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the previous monthly report, the adjusted annual rate reached 861,000 in November 2012, which was 3% below October’s rate;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: in the recent update, building permits rose during November by 3.6% (M-o-M) in the adjusted annual rate of building permits and reached 899,000. If this report will continue to rise in the building permits rate, it may indicate that the U.S housing market (from this aspect) is pulling up (the recent U.S building permits update);

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey shows an estimate for the progress of the US manufacturing conditions. In the latest December survey, the growth rate rose from -10.7 in November to +8.1 in December. If the index will continue to rise it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also American stock market, and commodities prices (the previous Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 4th; in recent weekly report, natural gas storage fell by 201 Bcf to 3,316 Bcf;

03:00 –China Fourth Quarter GDP 2012: during the third quarter of 2012, China grew by only 7.4% in annual terms; the current expectations are that the Q4 2012 grew in annul terms by a higher pace than in the previous quarter; if the growth rate will be higher than in the previous quarter it might positively affect commodities prices;

Friday, January 18th

09:30 –Retails Sales GB (December 2012): This report will show the shifts in the retails sales in Great Britain for December 2012. It may affect the path of the British Pound currency. In the recent report regarding November 2012, retails sales remained unchanged;

13:30 – Canadian Manufacturing Sales: This survey examines the changes (on a monthly basis) of Canada’s manufacturing sales. In the previous report the manufacturing sales declined by 1.4%; if this trend will continue, it could pull down the Canadian dollar;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment update; this survey could offer an insight to latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the previous report, the sentiment index fell to 74.5;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: the forthcoming monthly update will present an updated (as of December) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014 (see here a summary of last month’s update);

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