Weekly Financial Markets Outlook for June 11-15

The commodities markets continued to cool down including gold and silver markets after Bernanke put a wet blanket on the renewed speculations revolving the possibility of the Fed to introduce another stimulus plan in the near future. In the mean time, Spain continues to dwindle as it seeks a bailout from the European Union in the amount of €100 billion (roughly $125 billion) in order to rescue its banking system. This event and the upcoming Greek elections to be held at the end of next week is likely to fuel the forex markets and by extension the commodities markets as well. There are several important reports, speeches and events that may affect the financial markets including: U.S retails sales report, ECB President Speech, U.S PPI and CPI, Japan’s rate decision, China’s new loans and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar forecast for June 11th to June 15th regarding the U.S., EU, China, Japan and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, June 11th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will show the recent changes in China’s new loans given during last month. According to the previous report, the total loans declined; the recent rate cut of BOC might help rally the amount of loans taken in the months to follow;

07:45 – French Industrial Production: this report will refer to the shifts in the French industrial production during April; this news could indicate the development of France’s output and consequently may affect the Euro/USD exchange rate and commodities prices; last time, the industrial output declined by 0.9%;

17:00 – FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: FOMC member Lockhart will give a speech about the U.S economy and monetary policy. If he will suggest of the future steps of the FOMC it might affect the financial markets;

23:00 – FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks: FOMC member Pianalto will give a speech about Education;

Tuesday, June 12th

Tentative –IEA monthly oil report: this upcoming report will present an updated (as of May) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2012 and 2013 (See here a summary of the recent report);

tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this report will present to the main changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also analyze the developments in the production of OPEC countries during May 2012; this news may affect t oil prices (See here a summary of the last May report);

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s manufacturing production for April; in the last report regarding March the index rose by 0.9% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will show the changes in the U.S federal balance for May 2012; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the May report regarding April the deficit shrunk by $59 billion to a deficit of $719 billion for the fiscal year of 2012;

2:10 –Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaks: The Bank of Australia governor Stevens will give a speech as part of a discussion panel in the Australian Securities Investments Commission;

Wednesday, June 13th

Tentative – German 10 Year Bond Auction: the German government will issue another bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held at the middle of May, the rate reached 1.47%;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will present the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services for May 2012; in the recent report regarding April, the retail sales edged up by 0.1% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales decreased by 0.3% in April compared to March; this report could signal the development in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect crude oil prices;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the progress in the PPI during May 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the previous report regarding April this index for finished goods declined by 0.2% compared with March’s rate and rose by 1.9% in the past 12 months; this news might affect the development of gold and silver prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly changes on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 8th; in the previous weekly report for June 1st, stockpiles rose by 6.8 million bl to 1,783.26 million bl;

18:00 – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue another bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held at the second week of May, the rate reached 1.86%;

Thursday, June 14th

08:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: the Swiss National Bank will decide its Libor rate; this decision could affect not only forex traders but also commodities traders if there will be a change in the currently low Libor rate;

08:30 – SNB Press Conference: following the rate decision and monetary policy statement the Swiss National Bank Chairman will hold a press conference;

9:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for May 2012 examines the economic situation of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and government’s debt; this report might provide some insight into the updated expectations of the Euro Area growth;

10:00 – Euro Area Annual Inflation (May): the inflation in Euro Area reached 2.4% in May (flash report), i.e. it continued to decline. If the upcoming inflation rate estimate will confirm the flash report’s figure, it may raise the chances of another ECB interest rate reduction in the future ECB rate decision;

13:30 –U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will refer to the main changes in the core consumer price index for May 2012. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics during April 2012, the CPI remained unchanged (M-o-M) and the index increased over the last 12 months by 2.3%; the core CPI rose last month by 0.2%;

13:30 – U.S. Department of Labor– Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this update will pertain to the weekly developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 9th; in the latest report the jobless claims declined by 12k to 377,000; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities rates;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of June 1st; in the previous update, natural gas storage increased by 62 Bcf to 2,877 Bcf;

19:00 –Governor King speaks: The governor of Bank of England will speak in a press conference and his speech could offer some insight in regards to the recent BOE interest rate decision and monetary policy; this speech may affect the British Pound trading;

Tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy changes. Up to now, BOJ kept the interest rate unchanged at 0 to 0.1 percent. If the BOJ will introduce a new monetary stimulus plan, it might affect the Yen, other exchange rates and commodities prices;

Friday June 15th

07:50 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Following the ECB rate decision in which the rate remained flat at 1% the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will speak; his speech may include the recent events in Europe including the recent bailout Spain requires from the EU for its major banks;

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in April 2012. In the previous report regarding March 2012, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached $36.2 billion;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will issue its preliminary consumer sentiment survey; this report could offer some insight about the changes in U.S consumers sentiment about the economy; last time the sentiment index rose to 77.8;

For further reading: