Weekly Outlook for May 7 – 11

During the weekend the French second stage of the elections will be held. The Greek parliamentary elections will also take place. The results may affect the future policy steps of these countries respective governments and consequently it may also affect the Euro. The disappointing results in the recent U.S employment report, in which only 115 thousand jobs were added, was plausibly responsible for the tumble of U.S stocks and crude oil prices on Friday.  Let’s examine the main events and news items that may affect the financial markets including: U.S trade balance report, Australian employment, speech of Fed Chairman Bernanke, China’s trade balance, Germany factory orders, OPEC monthly report and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for the week of May 7th to May 11th referring to the U.S., Canada, EU, Great Britain, Australia, Japan and China.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, May 7th

02:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to the developments inAustralia’s retail sales report for March 2012. The retail sales (seasonally adjusted) edged up by 0.2% in February; this news may affect the strength of the Aussie dollar;

08:00 – Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves: the central bank ofSwitzerland will release the total value of its foreign currencies reserves during April;

12:00 – German Factory orders: this report will highlight the changes in theGermany factory orders during March; this news could indicate the progress of the German Economy and consequently may affect foreign exchange and commodities traders; last time, the orders rose by 0.3%;

Tuesday, May 8th

2:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will pertain March 2012. In the previous report, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services shrunk from a deficit of $971 million in January 2012 to a $480 million deficit in February. The export of non-monetary gold sharply rose by $365 million (43%); if the gold exports will change direction and fall March, it might suggest a drop in demand for non-monetary gold that could explain the fall in gold prices (see here last report);

10:30 – Australian Annual Budget Release: this report will outline the government budget ofAustralia for 2012; if there will be a hike in the budget deficit it could have an adverse effect on the Aussie dollar;

15:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Following the ECB rate decision to keep in unchanged at 1% the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will gibe a speech; his speech may include the recent events in Europe; he might also talk about the ECB’s monetary plan; if he will refer to implementing LTRO 3 or resuming the SMP this might affect the Euro/USD currencies pair;

Wednesday, May 9th

00:30 – Japan Current Account: this report will show the shifts in the difference between exports and imports forJapan during last month; this news may affect the strength of the Japanese Yen;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 4th; in the previous weekly update for April 27th, stockpiles declined by 1.9 million bl to 1,765.5 million bl;

18:00 – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue a bond auction;

2:30 – Australia Rate of Unemployment: in the previous report regarding March 2012 the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.2%; the number of employed fell by 15,400 people; the number of employed slightly rose by 6,500 during March compared with February‘s  figures. If this trend ill continue to could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, May 10th

tentative –China’s Trade Balance: according to the previous report, China’s trade balance changed direction from a $31.5  billion deficit to a $5.4 billion surplus; if the exports will rise it may indicate that China’s economic growth is rising and thus may positively affect prices of commodities;

tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this report will refer to the main changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also analyze the shifts in the production of OPEC countries during April 2012; this news may affect the direction of oil prices (See here a summary of the last April report);

12:00 – Great Britain Bank Rate & Asset Purchase Plan : Bank ofEngland will decide on its basic rate for May 2012 and the progress of its asset purchase plan; as of April the BOE’s rate was still flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan of £325 billion was in progress;

13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding February 2012, exports decreased by 3.9%, and imports edged up by 0.2%; as a result, the trade balance shrunk to a surplus of $292 million; this report may affect the trading of the Canadian dollar which tends to be strongly correlated with price of gold and crude oil;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for March 2012 will present the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as crude oil; In the previous American trade balance report for February the goods and services deficit decreased during the month to $46 billion.

13:30 – U.S. Department of Labor– Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this report will refer to the weekly changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 5th; in the previous report the jobless claims sharply declined to 365,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the path of the U.S dollar and consequently commodities prices;

14:30 – Bernanke Speech: following the FOMC meeting of April the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will give a speech regarding the US banking that may affect the direction of forex and commodities markets. The title of the speech is ” Banks and Bank Lending: The State of Play “;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Report: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will include the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of May 4th; in the recent report, natural gas storage rose by 28 Bcf to 2,576 Bcf; if the natural gas storage will keep rising, it may curb the recent rally of U.S natural gas prices;

Friday May 11th

Tentative –IEA monthly oil report: this upcoming report will present an updated (as of April) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil market for 2012 and 2013 (See here a summary of the previous report);

09:30 – Great Britain PPI Input: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s producer price index for April 2012; in the last report regarding March the input price rose by 1.9% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

13:30 – Canada Unemployment Rate and Employment Report: In the previous employment report for March 2012, unemployment edged down by 0.2 percent points to 7.2%; the employment sharply rose by 82k; the upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently the prices of energy commodities including crude oil and natural gas prices; take into account that Canada is among the leading exporters of these commodities to the U.S (see here the recent report);

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will show the progress in the PPI during April 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the previous report regarding March this index for finished goods remained unchanged compared with February’s rate and rose by 2.8% in the past 12 months; this news might affect the development of gold and silver prices;

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