Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 5-9

During last week, major commodities prices tumbled down; this includes oil, silver and gold. The U.S non-farm employment increased 171k jobs in October. This report, however, had a negative effect on commodities prices on Friday. Last week, several other reports came out including: U.S manufacturing PMI report in which the index edged up in October; jobless claims weekly update in which the number of claims declined by 9k to 363k. These news items may have contributed to movement of forex and commodities prices during last week. The main events of the week will revolve around the U.S Presidential Elections, the U.S trade balance report, Euro-group meeting and ECB rate decision. There are several other important publications, speeches and events that may affect the financial markets during the upcoming week. These include: G20 meeting, U.S ISM non-manufacturing PMI, China’s CPI, U.S bond auction, Canada’s trade balance, RBA and MPC rate decision, OPEC’s monthly report, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar projection for November 5th to November 9th regarding the U.S, Great Britain, China, Australia, EU, and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 5th

All Day – G20 Meeting: the G20 will convene for two days in order to converse about the recent economic developments in the world including the EU debt crisis and ways of solving it;

2:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming update will refer to September 2012. In the latest report, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services expanded its deficit to $2,027 million in August. The export of non-monetary gold fell by $2 million; if the gold exports will continue to drop in September, it might suggest a decline in demand for non-monetary gold (see here last report);

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to the developments in the non-manufacturing sector during October 2012. During September 2012 this index increased to 55.1% – this means the non-manufacturing is growing and at a faster rate than in the previous month; this index may affect forex and commodities trading;

02:00 – FOMC member Williams Speech: the FOMC member will talk in the University of California; the title of the speech is “Unconventional Monetary Policy“;

Tuesday, November 6th

U.S Presidential Elections: This news is likely to crowd out other news items and so the financial markets might be working light on that day, which could result in high volatility;

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: the overnight money market rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank declined by 0.25pp to 3.25%, which is the lowest level since the end of 2009. If the RBA will decide to cut the rate again, this news may affect the Australian dollar that is strongly linked with commodities prices;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s manufacturing production for September; in the last report regarding July the index declined by 1.1% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

Wednesday, November 7th

09:00 – Swiss National Bank Foreign Currency Reserve: The Bank will publish its current Foreign Currency Reserve; according to the pervious report, the forex reserves rose;

11:00 – Euro Area Retail Sales: This monthly update will present the changes in EU retail sales for October. In September 2012, retail sales edged up by 0.1%; if this report will not show growth it might weaken the Euro;

11:00– German Industrial Production: This report will refer to the developments in the industrial production of the German for September; in the previous report the German industrial production declined by 0.5% (M-O-M) during August;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 2nd; in the previous weekly update for October 26th, stockpiles remained virtually unchanged at 1,793 ml bl;

19:00 – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue another bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the second week of October, the average rate reached 1.7%; if the rate will continue to fall, it could suggest that more traders become more bearish;

00:30 – Japan Current Account: this report will present the changes in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the strength of the Japanese Yen;

02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the recent report regarding September 2012 the rate of unemployment rose to 5.4%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly rose by 14,500 people; the number of unemployed rose by 38,800 during September compared with August’s numbers. This report could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, November 8th

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this report will refer to the weekly developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 2nd; in the previous report the jobless claims decreased by 9k to 363k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently the prices of commodities;

All Day – Euro-group Meeting: The Euro-group Meeting will be held in Brussels and the EU ministers of finance will talk over the recent political and monetary developments in Europe; in the last meeting there was little headway and the market didn’t react to the news coming out of this meeting;

12:00 – Great Britain Bank Rate & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will decide on its basic rate for November 2012 and of any changes in its asset purchase plan; as of October BOE’s rate remained unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan was left at £375 billion;

12:45 – ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision: The last time the ECB decided to reduce its cash rate was back in July when President of ECB, Mario Draghi lowered the EU interest rate by 0.25pp to 0.75%; in October, the interest rate remained flat. Since many EU countries are still struggling, and since the FOMC announced in September of QE3, ECB might decide to make another rate reduction in the near future by another 0.25pp. If ECB will cut the rate again, it may affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate;

13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding August 2012, exports slipped by 0.1% and imports fell by 3.1%; as a result, the trade deficit contracted from a $2.5 billion deficit in July to $1.3 billion deficit in August; this report may affect the Canadian dollar which tends to be strongly correlated with prices of commodities;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for September will show the recent shifts in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as oil and natural gas; according to the previous American trade balance report regarding August the goods and services deficit rose during the month to $44.2 billion;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 2nd; in the last weekly report, natural gas storage rose by 65 Bcf to 3,908 Bcf;

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report regarding the Bank’s monetary policy;

02:30 – China’s CPI: during August the Chinese inflation rate edged down to an annual rate of 1.9%; this rate is well below China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. If the inflation will continue to be dwindle it could indicate that China’s economic progress isn’t expanding; China is among the leading countries in importing commodities such as gold and oil;

Friday, November 9th

06:30 –China Industrial Production: in the previous report regarding September 2012 the index rose to 9.2%; if the index will continue to rise, it could indicate the Chinese economic activity is expanding;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment report; this survey could offer another insight to recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment regarding the economy; last time the sentiment index rose again to 83.1;

Tentative –China’s Trade Balance: as of the previous monthly report, China’s trade balance increased to a $27.7 billion surplus; if the surplus will further expand, it could indicate that China’s economic growth is increasing and thus may positively affect prices of commodities.

Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this monthly report will refer to the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide as of October; the report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries last month; this news may affect oil prices (See here a summary of the previous report);

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