Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for September 10-14

During the previous week, the prices of commodities rose mainly on Friday following U.S employment that showed a fewer jobs were added during August than many had anticipated. This news may have contributed to the renewed expectations of another QE program in the upcoming FOMC meeting. I still think it’s too early to assume that the FOMC will launch QE3 this week. During last week, the Euro also hiked against the USD. Further, the major stock indexes also rose. Will gold silver and Euro continue to rally during this week? Will the FOMC announce at the end of its upcoming meeting of another stimulus plan? There are several important reports, rulings and announcements to be made that may affect the financial markets such as: China’s trade balance, U.S CPI and PPI, American bond auction, U.S retail sales, China’s new loans, U.S. and Canada’s trade balance, EU industrial production, Swiss National Bank rate decision, OPEC monthly report, German Courts ruling on EMS and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar forecast for September 10th to September 14th regarding the U.S., GB, Japan, Switzerland, China, EU, and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, September 10th

00:30 – Japan Current Account: this report will show the shifts in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the strength of the Japanese Yen;

Tentative –China’s Trade Balance: according to the recent report, China’s trade balance declined to a $25.1 billion surplus; if the surplus will further shirk, it could indicate that China’s economic growth is slowing down and thus may adversely affect prices of commodities;

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will update the recent changes in China’s new loans given during the recent month. According to the previous report, the total loans declined despite that People Bank of China had slashed the interest rate and eased the restrictions on commercial banks regarding new loans; this report is another indicator to the economic progress of China;

Tuesday, September 11th

13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding June 2012, exports edged up by 0.2% while imports rose by 2.3%; as a result, the trade deficit expanded from a $954 million deficit in May to $1.8 billion deficit in June; this report may affect the Canadian dollar which tends to be strongly linked with prices of commodities;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for July 2012 will present the recent changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as oil, natural gas and gold; according to the previous American trade balance report regarding June 2012 the goods and services deficit declined during the month to $42.9 billion;

Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also pertain to the shifts in the production of OPEC countries during August 2012; this news may affect oil prices (See here a summary of the previous August report);

Wednesday, September 12th

10:00– Euro Area Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the industrial production of the EU for July; in the previous report the EU industrial production declined by 0.6% (M-O-M) during June;

Tentative – German High Court Ruling on EMS: The German Court will publish its final ruling on the legality of the Euro bailout fund, European Stability Mechanism (EMS). If the Court will rule in favor of the program it could help stabilize the Euro;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 7th; in the previous weekly update for August 31st, stockpiles fell by 9.6 million bl to 1,787 million bl;

18:00 – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue another bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the second week of August, the average rate reached 1.68%;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: this upcoming monthly report will present an updated (as of August) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2012 and 2013;

Thursday, September 13th

08:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: the Swiss National Bank will announce of any changes in its Libor rate; this decision could affect not only foreign exchange markets but also commodities markets if there will be a change in the currently low Libor rate;

08:30 – SNB Press Conference: soon after the publication of the rate decision and monetary policy statement the Swiss National Bank Chairman will hold a press conference;

9:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for August 2012 analyzes the economic changes of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and government’s debt; this report might provide some insight into the updated expectations of the Euro Area growth;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Update:  this update will pertain to the weekly changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 7th; in the recent report the jobless claims declined by 12k to 365,000; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently the rates of commodities;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the progress in the PPI during August 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ stand point. In the recent report regarding July this index for finished goods rose by 0.3% compared with June’s rate and increased by 0.5% in the last 12 months; this news might affect gold and silver prices;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly review of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 7th; in the previous weekly report, natural gas storage increased by only 28 Bcf to 3,402 Bcf;

Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: the Italian government will issue another bond auction; in the latent bond auction, which was held at the end of August, the average rate reached 5.82%;

Tentative – GB 10 Year Bond Auction: the British government will also issue a bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the middle of July, the average rate was 1.72%;

19:30 – FOMC Meeting (Statement): The FOMC will convene for the sixth time this year and to decide at the end of two day of meeting on any changes in its monetary policy and interest rate; Following the speech of Bernanke and the minutes of recent FOMC meeting, it seems that the market has already concluded that there will be another QE program in the near future. Further, the recent depreciation of the USD, the low growth rate in employment and GDP for Q2 are also adding to the chances of another QE. I think the FOMC won’t announce of another stimulus plan in this upcoming meeting. The FOMC statement may affect the US dollar and even more than that it most likely affect gold and silver prices; I speculate that even if the FOMC won’t announce of another QE program but will only allude to its intention to do so in the near future, this news is likely to further pull up gold and silver prices;

Friday, September 14th

All Day – European Council Meeting: The European Council Meeting will be held in Brussels and the EU ministers of finance will meet and converse about the recent political and monetary changes in Europe;

13:30 –U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will pertain to the main shifts in the core consumer price index for August 2012. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics during July, the core CPI edged up by 0.1%(M-o-M) and the index rose over the last 12 months by 2.1%; the CPI remained unchanged last month;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will present the monthly developments in the retail sales and food services for August 2012; in the recent report regarding July, the retail sales rose by 0.8% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales increased by 0.5% in July compared to June; this report could signal the changes in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect crude oil prices;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will issue its preliminary consumer sentiment survey; this survey could offer another insight to recent developments in U.S consumers sentiment about the economy; last time the sentiment index rose to 73.6;

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