Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for September 24-28

During the previous week, the prices of bullion remained nearly unchanged while the prices of oil tumbled down along with major foreign exchange rates such as Aussie dollar and Euro.  The FOMC decision to launch QE3 is likely to have some lingering effects on the prices of commodities mainly gold and silver in the weeks to follow even though it didn’t  seem so during last week. There are several important publications, speeches and events that may affect the financial markets during his week including: U.S new home sales, Euro Area monetary development, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S GDP for Q2 (final estimate), Italian bond auction, U.S pending home sales, minutes of BOJ monetary meeting, U.S core durable goods, Canada’s GDP, ECB President’s speech, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for September 24th to September 28th regarding the U.S., GB, Japan, China, EU, and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, September 24th

00:50 –Minutes of the recent Japanese monetary policy meeting: Following last week’s BOJ monetary policy meeting – the Bank members decided to keep the interest rate at 0 to 0.1 percent but expanded its stimulus by 10 trillion yen – the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of last week’s meeting. The minutes may offer some insight behind the Bank’s recent decision that could affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices;

08:30 – FOMC member Williams Speech: Following the FOMC decision to issue QE3, one of the FOMC members will talk about the economic outlook of the U.S;

09:00 – German Business Climate Survey: This survey analyzes the changes (on a monthly basis) of the business climate of Germany. In the previous report for  August 2012, the business climate index declined from 103.3 in July to 102.3 in August; if this trend will continue, it might adversely affect the Euro;

Tuesday, September 25th

07:00 – German Consumer Climate: Gfk group will publish their German consumer climate index. If this report will remain positive it might also pull up the Euro;

13:30 –Retails Sales Canada (July 2012): This report will show the shifts in the retails sales in Canada during July 2012. It may affect the direction of USD/CAD exchange rate, which is strongly linked with commodities prices. In the previous report regarding June 2012, retails sales declined by 0.4%;

14:00 – ECB President Speech: Mario Draghi will talk in an annual event “Day of the German Industries”. In his speech he might refer to the future monetary steps the ECB will take. This speech might affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate;

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: according to the recent monthly update, the consumer confidence index fell in August (M-o-M). The current expectations are that the September index may rise; this report might affect commodities markets including the natural gas market;

Wednesday, September 26th

Tentative – German 10 Year Bond Auction: the German government will issue another bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the first week of September, the average rate reached 1.42%;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to August 2012; in the previous report (regarding July 2012), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 372,000 – a 3.6% gain (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to rise, it may further indicate a sign of some recovery in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the strength of the US dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 21st; in the previous weekly update for September 14th, stockpiles hiked by 11.4 million bl to 1,801 million bl;

Thursday, September 27th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the progress of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area during August 2012. In the previous July report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 3.8%; M1 also increased to 4.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector edged up to 0.1%. This news may affect the Euro/USD and consequently commodities rates;

09:30 – Great Britain Current Account: This will report will show recent changes in the balance of payment of Great Britain that reached, according to the recent report, to 11.2 billion pound; this report may affect the GBP/USD currency;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this update will refer to the weekly changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 14th; in the recent report the jobless claims slipped by 3k to 382,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently the rates of commodities;

Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: the Italian government will issue another bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the last week of August, the average rate reached 5.82%; if the yields will continue to fall, it could indicate a rise in confidence in the EU economy;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will pertain to the developments in U.S. orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector for August 2012. This report may indirectly show the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as crude oil. As of July 2012, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose by $9.4 billion to $230.7 billion; if this report will continue to be positive then it could pull up not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;

13:30 – Final U.S GDP 2Q 2012 Estimate: This will be the final estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2012 real GDP growth. In the recent estimate the U.S GDP in the second quarter grew by 1.7%; in the 1Q2012 the GDP growth rate was 1.9%. This shows a decrease in the growth rate for the US’s GDP. If there will be a sharp shift in this estimate it could also affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices (for the previous estimate of US 2Q GDP).

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report refers to the changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for August 2012; in the recent report the pending home sales index rose by 2.4% (M-over-M). These data are another indicator for the changes in America’s real estate market; based on last week’s results on housing starts the pending sales may continue to rise. In such a case US dollar may rally;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 21st; in the previous weekly report, natural gas storage increased by 67 Bcf to 3,496 Bcf;

03:30– China’s revised Manufacturing PMI: this revised survey covers 800 companies in 20 industries in China; according to last week’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI flash report for September 2012 the Manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.8, which means the manufacturing conditions are still contracting in China; if this negative index will continue, this may adversely affect commodities prices, unless China will act to stimulate its economy;

Friday, September 28th

07:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly report will present the changes in German retail sales during September. In August 2012, retail sales fell by 0.9%; if this report will remain negative then it might weaken the Euro;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: this report provide an outlook of the Swiss economy in the months to come. In the previous press release, the report predicted that the Swiss Economy is headed towards an expansion in 2012;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: the report will refer to the shifts in major industrial sectors for July 2012. In the previous report regarding June 2012, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.2%. This report may affect the strength of the Canadian dollar currency which is strongly correlated with commodities;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will issue its revised consumer sentiment survey; this survey could offer another insight to recent developments in U.S consumers sentiment about the economy; last time the sentiment index increased to 74.3;

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