Weekly Outlook for September 12-16

Following the sharp decline in crude oil prices by the end of the week, along with the appreciation of the US dollar against major currencies including the Euro and CAD, there are many questions regarding the direction of major commodities prices such as gold prices and forex including Euro/USD in the upcoming week. There are many news items and reports that will be published this week that could affect traders including: US Federal Budget Balance, OPEC monthly report, U.S. producer price index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of September 12th to September 16th that highlights the main news items and reports related to the U.S., Euro Area and Australia.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday 12th of September 2:30 – Australian trade of Balance: The upcoming report will regard July 2011. In the June 2011 report, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services declined from a surplus of $2,699 million May 2011 to $2,052 million in June 2011 – a $647 million drop. There was a decline in export of non-monetary gold by $894 million (55%); if this decline in gold export will continue, it might suggest a decrease in demand for non-monetary gold that could explain the changes in gold prices (see here last report);
  2. Monday 12th of September tentative –OPEC monthly report: this report will present the changes in crude oil and natural gas’s demand and supply worldwide; the report will also examine the changes in the production of OPEC countries during August; the recent drop in crude oil prices might be stem, in part, from the ongoing increase in Saudi Arabia’s oil production; (See here a summary of the last report);
  3. Tuesday 13th of September tentative –IEA monthly oil report: this upcoming report will present an updated (as of August) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil market for 2011 and 2012 (See here a summary of the last report);
  4. Tuesday 13th of September 19:00  –US Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will show the changes in the US federal balance for August 2011; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the USD. In the previous report, the US government deficit reached in July $129.37 billion –  nearly $86 billion increase from the $43.080 billion deficit recorded in June 2011, but a decrease of 21% from the July 2010 (See here a summary of the recent report);
  5. Wednesday 14th of September 13.30 – U.S. producer price index: This monthly report will show the progress in the PPI during August, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the previous report regarding July, this index for finished goods inclined by 0.2%, after a drop of 0.4% in June; this index inclined mainly due to the rise in food prices; this news could have an effect on gold and silver prices;
  6. Wednesday 14th of September 15:30 – Changes in US retail sales: this report shows the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services; in last month’s report regarding July, the retail sales, when controlling for the price changes, slightly inclined by 0.5% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales rose by 1.6% in July compared with June 2011, and were 23.6% above sales in July 2010; this report could indicate the changes in US demand for gasoline (see here my review of the recent report).
  7. Wednesday 14th of September 15:30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S Petroleum market for the week ending on September 9th; last week, the US petroleum & oil stockpiles sharply fell by 9.2 million barrels, or 0.51% to reach 1,784.9 million barrels (see here the recent crude oil market review);
  8. Thursday 15th of September 9.00 – ECB monthly bulletin: This monthly bulletin analyzes the economic situation of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and governments debt; this report might provide some insight into the recent sharp depreciation of the Euro against the USD (see here last report)  ;
  9. Thursday 15th of September 10:00 – Euro Area CPI and core monthly inflation (August): In the last report regarding July 2011, the annual inflation rate declined to 2.5%, a 0.2 percent points decline compared with June’s inflation; this inflation rate is still above the target inflation of ECB of 2%. The expectations in the upcoming CPI report for August 2011 are a slight decline. This news might affect the Euro currency, ECB’s next rate decision and consequentially major commodities prices including crude oil and gold (for the full previous report);
  10. Thursday 15th of September 13:30 – Department of Labor report – U.S. unemployment claims: For the week ending on September 3rd, initial claims rose by 2,000 to 414,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.0% for the week ending on August 27th; the number of insured unemployment was 3.717 million, a decrease of 30,000 compared with the previous week’s (see here my recent review on the US Labor market);
  11. Thursday 15th of September 13:30 – Report on US CPI: This monthly report will show the main changes in the consumer price index during August. According to the US Bureau of Labor statistics for July 2011, the CPI inclined by 0.5% and over the last 12 months by 3.6%. The core CPI inclined in July by 0.2%. The main reasons for this increase are related to the sharp increase in energy prices;
  12. Thursday 15th of September 15.00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey provides an indicator for the economic progress of the US economy as it measures the manufacturing conditions of the US. In the recent August survey, the index declined from a positive reading of 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August – the lowest level since March 2009. This index, may have been among the factors to affect not only the USD but also US stock markets, crude oil prices and gold prices (see here last report)  ;
  13. Thursday 15th of September 15:30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: The Weather disruption could continue to affect the natural gas market from both the demand and supply sides. The EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on September 9th. In the recent report, natural gas storage rose by 2.2% or 64 Bcf to 3,025 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states – the highest stock level since December 31st, 2011 (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  14. Thursday 15th of September 19:00 – ECB conference Trichet speaks:  following the recent rate decision in which ECB kept the rates unchanged at 1.5%, Trichet will give a speech regarding the economic stability of the Euro Area, the recent depreciation of the Euro and the ongoing debt crisis in the Euro Area;
  15. Friday 16th of September 14:00 – US TIC long term purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries during July 2011. In the previous report regarding June 2011, the net foreign holdings in US Treasuries longer-term notes fell by $11.5 billion. Due to the news of the US credit rating downgrade, it’s likely to have also affected traders to further purchase Treasury bills (see here my last review of June 2011).


For further reading:

Previous Reports: