Weekly Outlook for 14-18 November

The financial community’s interest continued to revolve around the news that came pouring in from Europe during last week including the political changes in Italy and Greece that stir up the forex, stocks and commodities markets throughout the week.  The news from Europe will likely to keep occupying the markets and affect its stability during the upcoming week. Trading NRG will follow, analyze and report of any major development from this front.  During the upcoming week there are important reports to be published that could affect the forex and commodities markets including: Euro Area’s GDP in Q3, Philly Fed survey, Bank of Japan’s rate decision, U.S. CPI, and American housing starts. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of November 14th to November 18th that highlights the main news items related to the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Sunday 13th of November 23:50– Japan’s Preliminary GDP 3Q2011: Japan continues to demonstrate weakness as its gross domestic product shrunk by 2.1% during the second quarter of 2011, and 1.3% during the fourth quarter of 2010 (in annul terms). The steps taken by BOJ (see below) to jumpstart the economy don’t seem to rally the Japanese economy for now. This news could affect the strength of the Japanese Yen;
  2. Monday 14th of November 2:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Australia’s Bank: The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the reserve bank of Australia shows the main factors that influenced the board’s decision to keep the Bank’s basic interest rate unchanged at 4.75%; this decision may affect the AUD/USD exchange rate and consequently the prices of major commodities including crude oil and gold (see here last rate decision);
  3. Tuesday 15th of November 09:30 – Great Britain CPI: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s consumer price index for October; in the last report regarding September the annual CPI reached 5.2%; this news may influence pound traders;
  4. Tuesday 15th of November 10:00– Euro Area GDP 3Q2011 Report: Germany France and Italy will publish this week their preliminary third quarter GDP report. This report will show the changes in the economic growth in these countries; Euro Stat will also publish the GDP growth rate of the Euro Area. According to the recent report in the second quarter of 2011, the Euro Area GDP grew by only 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. This news might affect the Euro; there are early expectations of a low growth rate in the third quarter (see here recent report);
  5. Tuesday 15th of November 13:30 – Changes in U.S. Retail Sales: this report shows the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services; in last month’s report regarding September, the retail sales, when controlling for the price changes, slightly inclined by 1.1% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales increased by 1.2% in September compared with August 2011, and were 20.3% above sales in September 2010; this report could indicate the changes in U.S demand for gasoline (see here my review of the recent report).
  6. Tuesday 15th of November 13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This monthly report will show the progress in the PPI during October, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the recent report regarding September, this index for finished goods rose by 0.8% compared with August’s rate and by 6.9% in annual terms; this news could have an effect on gold and silver prices;
  7. Tuesday 15th of November tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: This statement will present Bank of Japan’s rate decision and other monetary related decisions. In the recent statement the bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 0 to 0.1 percent and also decided to enhance the Asset purchasing program by 5 trillion yen ($65 billion). The BOJ also created US dollar funds auctions in order to devalue the yen. These steps are aimed to protect Japan’s economy from slowing down. If the BOJ will take additional similar steps, they could affect the forex market and commodities markets seeing that Japan is among the leading countries in importing commodities such as gold, crude oil and natural gas;
  8. Wednesday 16th of November 10:00 – Euro Area CPI and Core Monthly Inflation (October): Following the recent interest rate cut done by the ECB, there are those who may consider there will be an increase in the inflation pressures in the months to come. In last flash report regarding October 2011, the annual inflation rate was 3.0%, which could be among the key factors to affect the future ECB decisions on its interest rates;
  9. Wednesday 16th of November 13:30 – Report of U.S CPI: This monthly report will show the main changes in the consumer price index during September. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics for September 2011, the CPI inclined by 0.3% and over the last 12 months by 3.9%. The core CPI inclined in September by 0.1%. The main reasons for this increase are related to the sharp gains in energy prices;
  10. Wednesday 16th of November 14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in September 2011. In the previous report regarding August 2011, the net foreign holdings in U.S Treasuries longer-term notes declined by $8.7 billion (see here my review for July 2011).
  11. Wednesday 16th of November 15:30 – EIA Report on Crude Oil Stockpiles: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on November 11th; last week, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles sharply declined by 15.3 million barrels to 1,745.3 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
  12. Thursday 17th of November 13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: According to the US Census Bureau involves the U.S housing starts; this figure was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts rose, gold prices tend to fall the following day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the recent report, the adjusted annual rate reached 658,000 in September 2011, which is 15% above August’s rate of 572,000 (see here the recent review);
  13. Thursday 17th of November 13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The recent report showed a 5% decrease (M-o-M) in the adjusted annual rate of building permits as it reached 594,000 in September 2011. If this report will continue to show a decline in the building permits rate, it may indicate that the US housing market isn’t pulling out of its slump (see here the recent review);
  14. Thursday 17th of November 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims decreased by 10,000 to 390,000 claims for the week ending on November 4th; the number of insured unemployment fell by 92k to 3.615  million during the week of October 29th; the upcoming report may affect forex and commodities traders;
  15. Thursday 17th of November 15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey provides an indicator for the economic progress of the US economy as it measures the manufacturing conditions of the US. In the last October survey, the report showed improvement as the index inclined from –17.5 in September to +8.7 in October. This index, may have been among the factors to affect not only the US Dollar but also American stock markets, oil prices and gold price (see here last report)  ;
  16. Thursday 17th of November 15:30 – EIA report on U.S. Natural Gas Market: The EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on November 11th. In the recent report, natural gas storage inclined for the thirty-first  consecutive week by 37 Bcf to 3,381 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  17. Friday 18th of November 13:00 – Canadian Core CPI: This report will refer to the core consumer price index changes during October 2011 that controls the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables. According to the recent Canadian statistics report for September 2011, the CPI rose by 3.2% during the past 12 month up to September – this is a slightly higher rate than in August, in which there was a 3.1% growth rate in 12 months; the core CPI excluding food and energy grew by only 1.9% from September 2010 to September 2011 – higher than the 1.5% increase during the 12 months up to August (annual rate). This news could affect the CAD.

Monthly Analysis and Outlook:

Previous Reports: