Following the rally of precious metals’ prices in the past couple of weeks along with other commodities prices including crude oil prices, this week brings many news items on the agenda that could affect this upward trend including: China’s GDP growth rate, U.S. CPI and PPI, OPEC’s monthly report, U.S. housing starts and changes in existing home sales. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of January 16th to January 20th that highlights the main news items related to the U.S., UK, China, Australia, Canada and Euro Area.
(All times GMT):
- Monday 16th of January 18:00 – ECB President Speaks: Following the recent interest rate decision, in which it was decided to keep the rate unchanged at 1%, this week the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will talk about the economic outlook and stability of the European Union and perhaps even address the recent news of the cut in France’s credit rating by S&P. This speech might impact the forex and commodities markets;
- Monday 16th of January 02:00 –China Fourth quarter GDP: during the third quarter of 2011, China grew by 9.1% in annual terms; the current expectations are that the Q4 2011 grew in annul terms by 9.3%; if the growth rate will be lower it might have an adverse effect on commodities prices;
- Monday 16th of January tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this report will show the main changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also analyze the changes in the production of OPEC countries during December; the recent fluctuations in crude oil prices might be stem, in part, from the changes in OPEC’s oil production; (See here a summary of the last December report);
- Tuesday 17th of January 09:30 – Great Britain CPI: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s consumer price index for December; some expect the December inflation will be lower than in recent months; in the previous report regarding November the annual CPI declined from 5% to 4.8%; this news may influence British pound traders;
- Tuesday 17th of January 10:00 –German ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming publication will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for January 2012. During December 2011 the ZEW indicator for Germany slightly rose by 1.4 points to -53.8 (see here the recent report);
- Tuesday 17th of January 10:00 – Euro Area CPI and Core Monthly Inflation: In last flash report regarding December 2011, the annual inflation rate declined to 2.8%; if the inflation will start to rise it could be among the key factors in affecting the future ECB interest rates decisions;
- Tuesday 17th of January 14:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate: The Bank of Canada will publish its decision vis-à-vis the overnight interest rate, which remained unchanged at 1% during the last decision. The BOC may continue its policy of keeping the interest rate unchanged;
- Wednesday 18th of January 13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will show the progress in the PPI during December, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the last report regarding November this index for finished goods slightly rose by 0.3% compared with October’s rate and rose by 5.7% in annual terms; this news may affect gold and silver prices;
- Wednesday 18th of January 14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in November 2011. In the previous report regarding October 2011, the net foreign purchases of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes rose by $4.8 billion;
- Wednesday 18th of January 15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on January 13th; in the last report, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles sharply rose by 9.4 million barrels to 1,749.7 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
- Wednesday 18th of January tentative –IEA monthly oil report: this upcoming report will present an updated (as of December) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil market for 2012 and 2013 (See here a summary of the previous report);
- Wednesday 18th of January 2:30 – Australia Rate of Unemployment: in the previous report regarding November 2011 the rate of unemployment slightly rose to 5.3%; the number of employed fell by 6,300 people; the number of unemployed slightly rose by 9,400 during November compared with October’s figures. If this trend ill continue to could further affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
- Thursday 19th of January 9:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly bulletin for December 2011 analyzes the economic situation of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and governments debt; this report might provide some insight into the current expectations of the economic growth of the Euro Area;
- Thursday 19th of January 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims increased by 24,000 to 399,000 claims for the week ending on January 7th; the number of insured unemployment rose by 19k to 3.628 million during the week of December 30th; the upcoming report may affect forex and commodities markets;
- Thursday 19th of January 13:30 –U.S core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will present the main changes in the core consumer price index during December. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics for November 2011, the core CPI rose by 0.2% (M-o-M) and rose over the last 12 months by 2.2%;
- Thursday 19th of January 13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: the U.S Census Bureau will publish the U.S housing starts report; this figure was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts rose, gold prices tend to fall the following day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the previous report, the adjusted annual rate reached 685,000 in November 2011, which is 9.3% above October’s rate of 627,000 (see here the recent review);
- Thursday 19th of January 13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The previous report presented a 5.7% increase (M-o-M) in the adjusted annual rate of building permits as it reached 681,000 in November 2011. If this report will continue to show a gain in the building permits rate, it may indicate that the US housing market may start to rise from its slump (see here the previous review);
- Thursday 19th of January 15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey provides an indicator for the economic growth of the US economy as it measures the manufacturing conditions of the US. In the previous December survey, the report showed the growth rate moderately rose from +3.6 in October to +10.3 in November . This index, may have be among the factors to affect not only the U.S Dollar but also the American stock markets, oil prices and gold price (see here last report);
- Thursday 19th of January 15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Market Report: in the upcoming weekly report of the EIA on U.S. natural gas market will analyze and report the changes for the week ending on January 13th on natural gas storage, production, consumption and prices. In the previous report, natural gas storage fell by 95 Bcf to 3,377 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here the recent review on the natural gas market);
- Friday 20th of January 13:00 – Canada’s Core CPI: This report will refer to the core consumer price index changes during December 2011 that controls the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables. According to the Canadian CPI report for November 2011, the CPI rose by 2.9% during the past 12 month up to November – this is a higher rate than in October; the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 2.1% from November 2010 to November 2011. This news could affect the CAD.
- Friday 20th of January 15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will present the development in U.S. existing home sales during December 2011; in the recent report regarding November the number of homes sold rose: the seasonally adjusted annual rate reached 4.42 million home sales compared with an annual rate of 4.25 million home sales in October 2011, a 4% gain (see here the recent review).
For further reading:
- Gold & Silver Prices | Weekly Recap 9-13 January
- Where are Gold and Silver Headed in 2012?
- Will Natural Gas Hit $1?
Monthly Analysis and Outlook:
- Gold and Silver Prices Monthly Outlook for January 2012
- Natural Gas Prices Monthly Outlook for January 2012