Weekly Outlook for October 17-21

The third week of October is upon us and here are the main events and reports for the upcoming week include: China’s third quarter GDP, Ben Bernanke’s speech, U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases, U.S CPI, Canada’s CPI, Philly Fed Index, and U.S. housing starts. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of October 17th to October 21st that highlights the main news items and reports related to the U.S., Canada, China, Germany and Australia.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday 17th of October 2:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Australia’s Bank: The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the reserve bank of Australia shows the main factors that influenced the board’s decisions on the Bank’s basic interest rate which is at 4.75%; this decision might also affect the AUD/USD exchange rate and consequently the prices of major commodities including crude oil and gold (see here last rate decision);
  2. Monday 17th of October 03:00 –China Third quarter GDP: during the second quarter of 2011, China grew by 9.5% in annual terms; the current expectations are that the Q3 2011 grew in annul terms by 9.2%; this slowdown is probably due to the recent raises in the interest rate and loans restrictions by the People Bank of China;
  3. Tuesday 18th of October 13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This monthly report will show the progress in the PPI during September, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the previous report regarding August, this index for finished goods remained flat, after an increase in 0.2% in July; this news could have an effect on gold and silver prices;
  4. Tuesday 18th of October 14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in August 2011. In the previous report regarding July 2011, the net foreign holdings in US Treasuries longer-term notes rose by $9.5 billion (see here my last review of July 2011).
  5. Tuesday 18th of October 18:15 – Bernanke Speaks: following last month’s announcement of FOMC plan to purchase LT securities and to sell ST securities to conclude by June 2012, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is likely to address the economic outlook of the FOMC and his speech may affect forex and commodities traders if he will hint of another stimulus plan in the horizon for the FOMC;
  6. Wednesday 19th of October 13:30 – Report of U.S CPI: This monthly report will show the main changes in the consumer price index during September. According to the US Bureau of Labor statistics for August 2011, the CPI inclined by 0.4% and over the last 12 months by 3.8%. The core CPI inclined in August by 0.2%. The main reasons for this increase are related to the sharp increase in energy prices;
  7. Wednesday 19th of October 13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The recent report showed an improvement as the adjusted annual rate reached 620,000 building permits in August 2011, which is 3.2% above July’s rate. If this report will continue to show an incline in the building permits rate, it may indicate that the US housing market may change direction (see here the recent review);
  8. Wednesday 19th of October 13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The additional figure to be published by the US Census Bureau involves the U.S housing starts; this figure was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts declined, gold prices tend to rise the following day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the last report the adjusted annual rate reached 571,000 in August 2011, which is 5% below July’s rate of 601,000 (see here the recent review);
  9. Wednesday 19th of October 15:30 – EIA Report on Crude Oil Stockpiles: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S Petroleum market for the week ending on October 14th; last week, the US petroleum & oil stockpiles slightly dropped by 1.4 million barrels to 1,769.1 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
  10. Thursday 20th of October 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims slipped by 1,000 to 404,000 claims for the week ending on October 8th; the number of insured unemployment reached 3.724 million, a decrease of 21,500 during the week of October 1st; this report could affect forex and commodities traders;
  11. Thursday 20th of October 15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the major changes in U.S. existing home sales during September 2011; in the recent report related to August the number of homes sold inclined in August: the seasonally adjusted annual rate reached 5.03 million home sales compared with an annual rate of 4.67 million home sales in July 2011, a 7.7% increase, and a 18.6% increase from the 4.24 million home sales (annual rate) in August 2010 (see here the recent review);
  12. Thursday 20th of October 15.00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey provides an indicator for the economic progress of the US economy as it measures the manufacturing conditions of the US. In the recent September survey, the index still showed weakness but was better than in the previous month. The index inclined from -30.7 in August to -17.5 in September. This index, may have been among the factors to affect not only the USD but also US stock markets, crude oil prices and gold prices (see here last report)  ;
  13. Thursday 20th of October 15:30 – EIA report on U.S. Natural Gas Market: The EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on October 14th. In the recent report, natural gas storage rose for the twenty-seventh straight week by 3.3% or by 112 Bcf to 3,521 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  14. Friday 21st of October 08:40 – ECB Press Conference Trichet Speaks: Jean Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, will talk about the challenges Euro Area is facing vis-à-vis the debt crisis. This speech may affect not only the Euros to US dollar exchange rate, but also major commodities prices such as gold price;
  15. Friday 21st of October 09:00 – German Business Climate Survey: This survey estimates the changes in the business climate in Germany on a monthly basis. In the last report regarding September 2011, the business climate index declined again; this survey may affect forex and commodities traders;
  16. Friday 21st of October 13:00 – Canadian Core CPI: This report will refer to the core consumer price index changes during September 2011 that controls the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables. According to the recent Canadian statistics report for August 2011, the CPI rose by 3.1% during the past 12 month up to August – this is a higher rate than in July, in which there was a 2.7% growth rate in 12 months; the core CPI excluding food and energy grew by only 1.9% from August 2010 to August 2011 – higher than the 1.6% increase during the 12 months up to July (annual rate). This news could affect the CAD.

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