Weekly Outlook for 2-6 January

The first week of 2012, much like the last week of 2011, will be a short one due to the New Years holiday on Monday, but there will be many news items on the agenda that may stir up the forex and commodities markets; some of the news items include: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI, EU and UK manufacturing PMI, Australia’s trade balance report, and Canada and U.S.’s non-farm employment reports. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of January 2nd to January 6th that highlights the main news items related to the U.S., Australia, UK, Canada and Euro Area.   

(All times GMT):

  1. Monday 2nd of January 09:00 – Europe’s ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will show the monthly change in manufacturing PMI of the Euro Zone for December 2011. During November the index fell to 46.4%  – a 28 month low; this index might affect the Euro currency;
  2. Tuesday 3rd of January 09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing PMI: In the recent report regarding November the manufacturing index of GB also declined to 47.6% a 0.2 percent point decrease compared with October’s  index; this figure means that the UK manufacturing sectors continued to contract in recent months;
  3. Tuesday 3rd of January 15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the monthly change in manufacturing sector on a national level for December 2011. During November the index sharply rose to 52.7% a 1.9 percent point increase compared to October’s index; this index might affect forex, crude oil and natural gas markets (see here my review of last report);
  4. Tuesday 3rd of January 19:15 – FOMC Meeting Minutes: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which it was decided to keep the interest rates low and didn’t present a news stimulus plan, the market soon reacted to this news as gold and silver prices sharply declined. The minutes of the FOMC meeting might bring some insight regarding the next steps of the FOMC in 2012 (see here FOMC meeting);
  5. Wednesday 4th of January 10:00 – Euro Area Annual Inflation (November): the inflation in Euro Area remained at 3.0% in October, and according the recent flash estimate the inflation rate remained unchanged. But the recent developments in the EU including the high uncertainty in the EU and the rise in balance sheets of ECB due to the loans it gave to EU banks.     If the upcoming inflation rate estimate will rise, it may slightly lower the chances of an additional ECB interest rate reduction;
  6. Wednesday 4th of January 15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This monthly report will examine the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during November. This report may indirectly signal the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as crude oil.  According to the recent flash report, during November new orders of manufactured durable goods increased by $7.5 billion or 3.8% to $207.0 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods inclined by $5.9 billion or 8.1% to $78.7 billion (for the full report);
  7. Wednesday 4th of January 2:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will regard November 2011. In the October report, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services sharply fell from a surplus of $2,249 million in September 2011 to $1,595 million in October 2011 – a $654 million decrease. The export of non-monetary gold fell by $197 million (15%); if the gold exports will continue to fall in October, it might suggest a decrease in demand for non-monetary gold that could explain the decline in gold prices (see here last report);
  8. Thursday 5th of January 10:00 – Euro Area Industrial New Orders: This report shows the changes in industrial new orders during October 2011; in the previous report regarding September 2011 the EU industrial news orders index declined by 6.4%. This index may provide as another indicator to the growth of the EU economy and could influence the Euro/USD exchange rate consequently major commodities prices;
  9. Thursday 5th of January 13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will provide an estimate for the U.S employment change during the month of December;
  10. Thursday 5th of January 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims rose by 15,000 to 381,000 claims for the week ending on December 24th; the number of insured unemployment inclined by 34k to 3.601 million during the week of December 17th; the upcoming report may affect forex and commodities prices;
  11. Thursday 5th of January 15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will show the development of non-manufacturing sector during December 2011. During November this index slightly fell to 52%; this index might affect forex and commodities traders (see here last report);
  12. Thursday 5th of January 15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on December 30th; in the previous report, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles inclined by 3 million barrels to 1,736.86 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
  13. Thursday 5th of January 15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Market Report: in the upcoming weekly report of the EIA on U.S. natural gas market will analyze and report the changes for the week ending on December 30th on natural gas storage, production, demand and prices. In the recent report, natural gas storage fell by 81 Bcf to 3,629 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here the recent review on the natural gas market);
  14. Friday 6th of January 12:00 – Canada Unemployment Rate and Employment Report: In the last employment report for November 2011, unemployment rose by 0.1 percent points to 7.4%; the employment declined by 19k. If the upcoming report will continue to show a slowdown in the labor report in during December, this might weaken the Canadian dollar against the USD and consequently might affect the prices of energy commodities including crude oil and natural gas prices as Canada is a lead exporter of these commodities to the U.S (see here previous report);
  15. Friday 6th of January 13:30 – U.S. Unemployment Rate Report & Non-farm Employment Change: in the recent December report regarding November, the labor market continues to rally as the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 120k; the U.S unemployment rate slipped to 8.6%; the last report showed improvement from the previous months, and may have traded down gold and silver during the first days of December. This report could affect not only the U.S dollar, but also commodities prices such as gold and silver prices (see my last review on the U.S labor report).

For further reading:

Monthly Analysis and Outlook:

 Previous Reports: