Weekly Outlook for September 26-30

Following the turbulence in the financial markets during the second part of last week with the FOMC stimulus plan and the CME decision to raise margins on gold and silver contracts, this week the financial markets will continue to dwell over the debt crisis in Europe and in particular the Greek debt crisis.  This upcoming week brings many news items that could affect the commodities market including gold and crude oil. The main events and reports for the upcoming week that could affect traders include: Ben Bernanke’s speech, U.S. news home sales, Euro Area inflation rate and U.S’s final estimate of Q2 GDP. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of September 26th to September 30th that highlights the main news items and reports related to the U.S., Euro Area and Canada.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday 26th of September 15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will present the changes in the real estate market during August 2011 and the new home sales in the U.S.; in the recent report (July 2011), the sales of new homes reached an annual rate of 298,000 – a slight decrease of 0.7% compared with the number of new homes sold in June 2011, but it was 6.8% above the home sales rate in July 2011; if this downward trend will continue, it may only further indicate a slowdown in the US housing markets and may affect commodities prices;
  2. Tuesday 27th of September 09.00 – Monetary Developments in the Euro Area: This monthly report will present the changes in the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area during August 2011. In the previous July 2011 report, the annual growth rate for M3 inclined to 2.0%. The M1 fell to 0.9%. The annual growth rate of loans to private sector slipped from 2.5% in June to 2.4% in July. If this decline will continue in August it could serve as another indicator of a slowdown in economic activity in Europe and  may affect ECB’s upcoming interest rate decision (see here the last report);
  3. Tuesday 27th of September 15.00 – US Consumer Confidence: in the previous report, the consumer confidence index declined during August compared with July’s index. The current expectations are that this index may continue to drop in the upcoming report; this report could affect commodities traders including the natural gas market;
  4. Wednesday 28th of September 13:30 – US Department of Commerce – Report on Core Durable Goods: This monthly report will show the changes in orders of durable goods in the U.S. in the manufacturing sector during August. This report indirectly shows the changes in U.S. demand for goods including major commodities such as crude oil. During July 2011, manufactured durable goods increased by $7.7 billion or 4.0% to $201.5 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods increased by $1.7 billion or 2.4% to $72.7 billion (for the full report);
  5. Wednesday 28th of September 15:30 – EIA report on crude oil stockpiles: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S Petroleum market for the week ending on September 23rd; last week, the US petroleum & oil stockpiles declined by 5.2 million barrels to 1,774.0 million barrels (see here the recent crude oil market review);
  6. Wednesday 28th of September 22:00 – Bernanke Speaks: following the recent announcement of FOMC plan to purchase LT securities and to sell ST securities to conclude by June 2012, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is likely to address the recent FOMC plan and may also refer to the sharp market reactions in the past couple of days of last week;
  7. Thursday 29th of September 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: For the week ending on September 17th, initial claims fell by 9,000 to 423,000 claims; for the week ending on September 10th, the number of insured unemployment was 3.727 million, a decrease of 28,000 compared with the previous week’s (see here my recent review on the US Labor market);
  8. Thursday 29th of September 13:30 – Final US GDP 2Q 2011 Report: This will be the last estimate of the second quarter 2011 real GDP of US. In the preliminary estimates the 2Q2011 GDP growth rate was 1.0%, compared with 0.4% increase at 1Q2011. This shows a very low growth rate for the US’s GDP and a slow down in the economic activity in the US compared to 2010 (for the second estimate of 2Q GDP).
  9. Thursday 29th of September 15:00 – U.S. pending Home Sales: This report shows the major changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for August 2011; in the recent July report there was decrease in the pending home sales index by 1.3% compared with June’s index. This will be another indicator for the economic progress of the real estate market in the US;
  10. Thursday 29th of September 15:30 – EIA report on US Natural Gas Market: The EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on September 23rd. In the recent report, natural gas storage inclined by 89 Bcf to 3,201 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states – the highest stock level since December 24th, 2011 (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  11. Friday 30th of September 10.00 – Euro Area Annual Inflation (September): the inflation in Euro Area remained unchanged in August with an annual inflation rate of 2.5%; if the upcoming flash estimate won’t show an increase in the inflation rate, it may further push ECB to decrease its interest rates (for the full previous report);
  12. Friday 30th of September 13:30 – Canada GDP by Industry: This report will present the changes in major industrial sectors for July 2011. In the last report pertaining the second quarter of 2011 and June 2011, the real gross domestic product declined by 0.1% in the 2Q2011, following a 0.9% increase in the 1Q2011; during June 2011 the real gross domestic product slightly inclined by 0.2%, after it decreased by 0.3% in May 2011. The June increase was stem in part from an increased of 1.0% in retail trade and a 0.6% growth in construction activity. This report could affect the strength of CAD exchange rate and consequently major commodities prices (for the full previous report).


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