Weekly Outlook for 30 January – 3 February

Following the rally in gold and silver prices during last week along with the gains of major currencies including the Euro and Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar, the upcoming week starts off with the announcement of Fitch rating to downgrade five EU countries’ credit rating. It will be interesting to see how, if at all, the market will react to this news (I guess it won’t). There are many news items on this week’s agenda that might affect commodities and forex markets including: U.S. non-farm employment report, Bernanke’s testimony, the EU summit, U.S. consumer confidence report, China’s manufacturing PMI, and Canada’s GDP. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for the week of January 30th to February 3rd that highlights the main news items related to the U.S., Europe, Australia, Canada and China.   

(All times GMT):

  1. Monday 30th of January All day – EU Summit: The European leaders will try and reach an agreement in regard to the steps needed to take to stabilize the EU and secure its future; if there will be important headlines from this summit this might affect traders;
  2. Monday 30th of January 13:30 – U.S. Personal Income and Outlays (December 2011): This report will show the monthly changes in the personal spending and income during December 2011 (see here the recent report);
  3. Tuesday 31st of January 10:00 – Euro Area Unemployment Rate: the Euro Area unemployment rate remained unchanged in the past couple of months at 10.3%; this report may affect Euro traders if there will be a sharp shift in this figure (see here full report);
  4. Tuesday 31st of January 13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: the report will show the changes in major industrial sectors for November 2011. In the previous report regarding October 2011, the real gross domestic product remained unchanged. This report might affect the trading on the Canadian dollar currency and consequently commodities trading (for the full previous report);
  5. Tuesday 31st of January 15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: according to the recent report, the consumer confidence index rose in December compared with November’s index. The current expectations are that this index might continue to rise in the January index considering the U.S. economy has shown signs of recovery; this report might influence commodities market especially the natural gas market;
  6. Tuesday 31st of January 2:00– China Manufacturing PMI: according to the Manufacturing PMI report regarding December the Manufacturing PMI bounced back and rose to 50.3 which is a 1.3 percent point gain compared with November’s index of 49; this index indicates the changes in the growth rate of China’s manufacturing sectors; if this upward trend will continue, this might also positively affect commodities prices;
  7. Wednesday 1st of February 13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will estimate the U.S employment development during the month of January 2012 in anticipation for the upcoming no-farm report to be published on Friday;
  8. Wednesday 1st of February 15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will publish the monthly development in the manufacturing sector on a national level for January 2012. During December the index rose to 53.9% a 1.2 percent point gain compared with November’s index; this index might affect forex, oil and natural gas markets (see here my review of last report);
  9. Wednesday 1st of February 15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly report regarding the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on January 27th; in last week’s report, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles rose by 4.2 million barrels to 1,743.4 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
  10. Wednesday 1st of February 2:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will pertain December 2011. In the November report, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services decline from a surplus of $1,418 million in October 2011 to $1,380 million in November 2011 – a $38 million drop. The export of non-monetary gold sharply rose by $358 million (32%); if the gold exports will continue to rally in December, it might suggest a rise in demand for non-monetary gold that could explain the rally in price of gold (see here last report);
  11. Thursday 2nd of February 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims rose by 21,000 to 356,000 claims for the week ending on January 21st; the number of insured unemployment also increased by 88k to 3.554 million during the week of January 14th; the upcoming report could influence the commodities market;
  12. Thursday 2nd of February 15:00 – Bernanke Testifies: following the recent FOMC meeting in which it was decided to lengthen the pledge of keeping rates low until late 2014, the speculations around another stimulus plan was rekindled. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve is likely to address the progress of U.S economy and might hint on the future plans for the FOMC;
  13. Thursday 2nd of February 15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Market Report: this weekly report of the EIA on U.S. natural gas market will present the recent developments for the week ending on January 27th on natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices. In the last update, natural gas storage sharply fell by 192 Bcf to 3,098 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here the recent review on the natural gas market);
  14. Friday 3rd of February 12:00 – Canada Unemployment Rate and Employment Report: In the previous employment report for December 2011, unemployment slightly increased by 0.1 percent points to 7.5%; the employment rose by 18k. the upcoming report might affect the direction of Canadian dollar against the USD and consequently also affect the prices of energy commodities including crude oil and natural gas prices  – considering Canada is a lead exporter of these commodities to the U.S (see here the recent report);
  15. Friday 3rd of February 13:30 – U.S. Unemployment Rate Report & Non-farm Employment Change: in the recent January report regarding December 2011, the labor market showed improvement as the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by 200k; the U.S unemployment rate declined to 8.5%; this report might affect not only the U.S dollar trading, but also commodities trading including gold and silver (see here my last review on the U.S employment report);
  16. Friday 3rd of February 15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the changes of non-manufacturing sector during January 2012. During December this index moderately rose to 52.6%; this index might affect forex and commodities trading (see here my review for December);
  17. Friday 3rd of February 15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will show the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during December. According to the recent flash report, during December new orders of manufactured durable goods rose by $6.2 billion to $214.5 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods also increased by $4.6 billion to $84.4 billion (for the recent report).

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