Weekly Outlook for October 31 – November 4

The last week of October was very turbulent in the financial markets as the EU summits came to a conclusion on Wednesday with an agreement on the EU debt crisis and the U.S GDP news also helped the prices of major commodities to soar. In the upcoming week there are many reports to be published and decisions to be made including: ECB rate decision, FOMC meeting, G20 meetings, U.S. and Canada labor reports, Euro Area annual inflation, and U.S. PMI-Manufacturing report (just to name a few). Here is an economic news calendar for the week of October 31st to November 4th that highlights the main news items related to the U.S., Canada, China, Australia and Europe.   

(all times GMT):

  1.  Monday 31st of October 11:00 – Euro Area Annual Inflation (September): the inflation in Euro Area grew to 3.0% in September; if the upcoming flash estimate will show an increase in the inflation rate, it may further lower the chances of an ECB interest rate reduction;
  2. Monday 31st of October 13:30 – Canada GDP by Industry: This report will present the changes in major industrial sectors for August 2011. In the last report pertaining July 2011, the real gross domestic product inclined by 0.3% in July, following a 0.2% increase in June 2011. The July increase was stem in part from an increased in manufacturing activity. This report could affect the strength of CAD exchange rate and consequently major commodities prices (for the full previous report);
  3. Monday 31st of October 2:00– China Manufacturing PMI: this index will cover 800 companies in 20 industries in China; according to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI report regarding August the PMI reached 51.2 which is slightly higher than the July index of 50.9; this index indicates the changes in China’s manufacturing sectors growth rate (see here last China’s GDP report);
  4. Monday 31st of October 4:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank remained flat at 4.75% since November 2010. Australia’s inflation rate continues to be near the Bank’s target inflation, and the unemployment rate near 5%; on the other hand the AUD/USD sharply fell during September, and this trend might affect the RBA’s decision on the rate decision (see here previous report);
  5. Tuesday 1st of November 10:30 – GB GDP Q3 2011: This report will show the quarterly growth rate of the British economy during the third quarter; during the previous quarter the GB economy grew by only 0.2% (Q-2-Q);
  6. Tuesday 1st of November 15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will show the monthly change in manufacturing sector on a national level during October 2011. During September the index grew to 51.6% a one percent point increase compared to August’s index; this index might affect traders of forex, crude oil and natural gas (see here my review of last report);
  7. Wednesday 2nd of November 13.30 – ADP estimate of U.S. change in non-farm employment: ADP will provide an estimate in the U.S employment during recent month (October);
  8. Wednesday 2nd of November 15:30 – EIA Report on Crude Oil Stockpiles: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on October 28th; last week, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles slightly rose by 0.7 million barrels to 1,758.9 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
  9. Wednesday 2nd of November 17:30 – FOMC Meeting (Statement): in the recent FOMC meeting the Federal Open Market Committee announced of its plan to purchase $400 billion worth of LT securities. The FOMC may consider additional steps even though there was a rally in the U.S stock markets during October. This meeting will be extended over two days (Tuesday and Wednesday) and the statement will be made available on Wednesday;
  10. Wednesday 2nd of November 19:15 – FOMC Press Conference – Bernanke Speaks: following the FOMC meeting the Chairman of he Fed will give a speech to sum up the recent meeting and of any headlines he may have; Bernanke’s speech could affect stocks, commodities and forex traders alike;
  11. Wednesday 2nd of November 1:30 – Australian Retail Trade: The upcoming report will regard September 2011. In the recent report regarding August 2011, the seasonally adjusted retail trade slightly inclined by 0.3% (M-2-M). This news may affect traders of AUD and consequently commodities prices that Australia exports  (see here last report);
  12. Thursday 3rd of November All Day –G20 Meeting: in this meeting (will be spread over two days) the financial ministers of the G20 countries will discuss the current European economic situation and the steps needed to take against the global economic slowdown.
  13. Thursday 3rd of November 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims fell by 2,000 to 402,000 claims for the week ending on October 22nd; the number of insured unemployment reached 3.645 million, a decrease of 96,000 during the week of October 15th; the upcoming report may affect forex and commodities traders;
  14. Thursday 3rd of November 13:30 – ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision: This upcoming rate decision will be the first one of the entering President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Last month ECB kept the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. According to the last Euro Area inflation rate report, the inflation grew to 3.0% (annual terms) in September. So the recent bump in the inflation is likely to reduce the chances of a decrease in the interest rates. But if ECB will lower interest rates it is likely to reduce the Euros to US dollar exchange rate;
  15. Thursday 3rd of November 15.00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the changes of non-manufacturing sector during October 2011. During September this index slightly slipped to 53.0%; this index might affect forex and commodities traders (see here last report).
  16. Thursday 3rd of November 15:30 – EIA report on U.S. Natural Gas Market: The EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on October 28th. In the last report, natural gas storage rose for the twenty-eighth straight week by 2.9% or by 92 Bcf to 3,716 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  17. Thursday 3rd of November 1:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: this quarterly report will present the effects of the global economy  on the monetary policy of Australia’s central bank; it will also review the economic progress of Australia (see here previous report);
  18. Friday 4th of November All Day – G20 Meeting: in this meeting the financial ministers of the G20 countries will discuss the current European economic situation and the steps needed to take against the global economic slowdown.
  19. Friday 4th of November 12:00 – German Factory orders: this report will show the changes in the Germany factory orders and could indicate the progress of the German Economy and consequently could influence forex and commodities traders;
  20. Friday 4th of November 12:00 – Canada Unemployment Rate and Employment Report: In the last employment report for September 2011, unemployment sharply declined by 0.2 percent points to 7.1%; the employment grew by 61k. If the upcoming report will show an improvement in the labor report in Canada during October, this might strengthen the Canadian dollar against the USD and consequently might affect the prices of energy commodities that Canada export to the U.S including crude oil and natural gas prices (see here previous report);
  21. Friday 4th of November 13.30 – U.S. Unemployment Rate Report & Non-farm Employment Change: in the recent October report regarding September, the number of non-farm payroll employment inclined by 103k; the U.S unemployment rate remained flat at 9.1%; the last report showed some improvement from the previous months, and may have curbed some of the rally of gold and silver prices during the first few days of October. This report could affect not only the U.S dollar, but also commodities prices such as gold and silver prices (see my last review on the U.S labor report).
  22. Friday 4th of November 13.30 – Canada Building Permits: during August the worth of the building permits sharply declined by 10.4% to $5.9 billion compared with July’s. This measure fluctuates very sharply from month to month. If this measurement will continue to drop in the upcoming report regarding September, this may weaken the Canadian dollar (see here previous report).

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