Weekly Outlook for 5-9 December

The upcoming week, which is also the second week of December, brings many news items and events that may affect forex and commodities markets including: U.S. trade balance report, ECB rate decision, EU summit, Australia’s GDP for the third quarter, China’s CPI and U.S. non-manufacturing PMI.. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of November 28th to December 2nd that highlights the main news items related to the U.S., Australia, China Europe and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

  1. Monday 5th of December 15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the changes of non-manufacturing sector during November 2011. During October this index remained nearly unchanged at 53.9%; this index might affect forex and commodities traders (see here last report).
  2. Monday 5th of December 4:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank remained flat at 4.75% since November 2010. Australia’s CPI continues to be not too far from the Bank’s target inflation, and the unemployment rate near 5% rate; on the other hand the AUD/USD continued to decline during November by 2.3%, and this trend might affect RBA’s rate decision;
  3. Tuesday 6th of December 12:00 – German Factory orders: this report will present the changes in the Germany factory orders and could indicate the progress of the German Economy and consequently could affect forex and commodities traders;
  4. Tuesday 6th of December 14:00 – Canada Overnight Rate: The Bank of Canada will publish its decision regarding the overnight interest rate, which remained unchanged at 1% during the last decision. The BOC may continue its policy of keeping the interest rate unchanged. This decision may affect the Canadian dollar exchange rate; there are strong correlations between Canadian dollar and crude oil prices as Canada is a major exporter of crude oil to the U.S.;
  5. Tuesday 6th of December 2:30 – Australian GDP Third Quarter 2011: This quarterly report will show the change in Australia’s GDP growth rate in the third quarter 2011 compared with the second quarter of 2011. In the last report regarding Q2 2011, the GDP expanded by 1.2% in annual terms (seasonally adjusted). Australia is among the leading non-OPEC countries in exporting crude oil and this report could offer some insight to the strength of Australian economy and consequently affect its currency (see here last report);
  6. Wednesday 7th of December 10:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production : this report will present the month to month change in the British manufacturing production in October; in the last report regarding September  the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index rose by 0.2% (M-2-M), while the overall production remained unchanged; this news may influence forex and commodities traders;
  7. Wednesday 7th of December 11:00 – German Industrial Production: this report will show the changes in the Germany industrial production and could indicate the progress of the German Economy and consequently could affect forex and commodities traders;
  8. Wednesday 7th of December 15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on December 2nd; last week, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles rose by 7.6 million barrels to 1,740.41 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
  9. Wednesday 7th of December 2:30 – Australia Rate of Unemployment: in the previous report regarding October 2011 the rate of unemployment slightly slipped to 5.2%; the number of employed rose by 10,100 people; the number of unemployed slightly fell by 5,700 during October compared with September’s figures. If this trend ill continue to could further affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
  10. Thursday 8th of December 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims inclined by 6,000 to 402,000 claims for the week ending on November 26th; the number of insured unemployment inclined by 35k to 3.740  million during the week of November 19th; the upcoming report may affect forex and commodities markets;
  11. Thursday 8th of December 13:30 – ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision: This upcoming rate decision will be the second one of the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Last month ECB reduced the interest rate by 0.25 percent point to 1.25%. According to the last Euro Area inflation rate report, the inflation rate is still at 3.0% (annual terms) in November. The Euro Area didn’t grow much and might enter into a deeper economic slowdown. If this would be the case, ECB might further reduce the interest rates or take further steps to jump start the economy; if ECB will reduce interest rates it is likely to pressure down the Euros to US dollar exchange rate;
  12. Thursday 8th of December 15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Report: This week the EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas report after it wasn’t published last week due to thanksgiving holiday; the report will analyze and report the natural gas storage and price changes for the week ending on December 2nd. In the previous report, natural gas storage slightly fell for the first time this season by 1 Bcf to 3,851 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  13. Thursday 8th of December 3:00 – Chinese CPI: in October, the Chinese inflation rate declined compared with September’s CPI and reached an annual rate of 5.5% (it was 6.1% in September); this rate is still above the China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. But the sharp drop in the inflation rate is probably an indication of the effect of the steps taken by the People Bank of China’s to curb the inflation pressures;
  14. Friday 9th of December All day – EU Summit: The European leaders will convene in the upcoming summit in an attempt to  reach an agreement about the actions needed to take to keep the EU Union and fight the European debt crisis;
  15. Friday 9th of December 13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the November report regarding September 2011, imports declined while exports increased during the month: exports increased by 4.2%, and imports fell by 0.3%; as a result, the trade deficit shrunk from $0.487 billion in August to a $1.2 billion surplus in September; exports of energy products increased by 11.3%, to $9.6 billion, while exports of industrial goods and materials inclined by 3.0% to $10.5 billion;
  16. Friday 9th of December 13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for October  2011 will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including major commodities such as crude oil; The American trade balance report for September 2011 the goods deficit decreased by $2.0 billion compared with August 2011 and reached $58.9 billion; the service surplus fell by $0.2 billion to $15.8 billion; as a result, the goods and services deficit declined during the month to $43.1 billion.

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