Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 25-29

During last week, several leading commodities prices including gold and silver declined. Their recent tumble coincided with the recovery of the US dollar against leading currencies such as Aussie dollar, Japanese yen and Canadian dollar. In the upcoming week several reports and speeches may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: U.S housing starts, BOJ minutes of last meeting, GB’s GDP for the third quarter, U.S pending home sales, China’s manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, German retail sales, U.S consumer confidence, Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey, Canada’s GDP by industry, BOE Governor Carney Speaks and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of November 25th to November 29th referring to the U.S, Japan, Euro Area, China, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 25th

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during October; in the last update, the pending home sales index tumbled again by 5.6% (month-over-month). These data are another signal for the slowdown in the U.S housing market; if the housing data shows additional decline in the index, it may drag down the U.S dollar;

00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan left this month its monetary policy without any changes. The minutes may offer some insight referring to the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices;

Tuesday, November 26th

10:00 – Great Britain Inflation report hearing: In these hearings BOE Governor is expected to testify and refer to the British inflation and the bank’s economic outlook in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for September 2013; this report was historically linked with gold price – as housing starts increased, gold prices tended to fall the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the recent monthly report, in August 2013, the adjusted annual rate reached 891,000, which was 0.9% above the previous month’s housing starts pace;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the recent update, during August, building permits fell by 3.8% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 918,000. If building permits continue to fall, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is cooling down (the recent U.S building permits update);

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last monthly report, for October, the consumer confidence index plummeted to 71.2 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the November index may further decline; this report might weaken the USD;

Wednesday, November 27th

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey projects Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for November. In the latest report for October 2013, the climate index slightly fell to 7;

09:30 – Second estimate of GB GDP Q3 2013: This report will present the revised estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the third quarter of 2013; during the second quarter the GB economy grew by 0.7% (Q-2-Q); in the early estimate, the second quarter GDP expanded by 0.7%; if the growth rate remains unchanged or very close to the first estimate, it could have little effect on the GB pound;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update:  This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 24th; in the previous report the jobless claims decreased by 21k to reach 323k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding October may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of September 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose to $234.3 billion; if this report shows another gain in new orders, then it could rally not only the USD but also commodities;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 24th; the report will also show the changes in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S; 

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report refers to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 24th;

Thursday, November 28th

All day – Germany’s CPI (preliminary report):Germany’s CPI is among the factors that affects the ECB’s rate decision. Last month’s report showed a decline in the CPI by 0.2%. If this trends continues, it could indicate the German economy isn’t heating up;

08:55 – German Unemployment Rate: Last month the unemployment slightly rose by 2k; the developments in the German workforce could affect the Euro/USD currency pair;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of October 2013. In the latest September report, the annual growth rate for M3 slipped to 2.1%; M1 fell to 6.6%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -1.4%. This news suggests the EU inflation is falling again as loans continue to contract and the growth rate of M1 and M3 declines. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect future ECB rate decisions;

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will give a speech in a press regarding the Financial Stability Report, in London;

13:30 – Canada’s Current Account: This update presents the changes in the gap between imported and exported goods and services, investment income, and current transfers during the last quarter. In the previous update, the deficit in the current account reached 14.6 billion Canadian dollar – a rise in deficit from the preceding quarter;

Friday, November 29th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sale: This monthly update provides an estimate for Germany’s retail sales in the past month. In the past report, retail sales slipped by 0.4% – lower than expected. If retail sales continue to fall, it could indicate Germany’s economy isn’t progressing, which could pressure down the Euro;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report projects the developments in the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for September 2013. In the last update regarding August 2013, the real gross domestic product slightly rose by 0.3%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of October, the Manufacturing PMI slightly rose for fifth consecutive month to 51.4 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a slightly faster rate; in the last flash PMI report (by HSBC), the index fell to 50.4. If in the upcoming report the PMI start to fall, it could signal slowdown in the growth rate in China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;

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