Financial Market Preview for April 11-15

The minutes of the FOMC meeting showed its members aren’t ready to raise rates in the next meeting later this month. But a June hike is still a possibility. In any case, the USD continues to lose ground – mostly against the Yen. This development helped boost commodities prices. In the upcoming week the main reports and events are: U.S. CPI, China’s GDP for Q1, EU CPI, BOC and BOE rate decisions, China’s CPI, China’s industrial production, Canada’s manufacturing sales, China’s trade balance, and U.S. retail sales. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of April 11th to 15th:  

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 11th

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 2.3%; the market estimates the annual rate will further pick up to 2.4%;

Tuesday, April 12th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last update, the CPI remained at 0.3% in February. The current projections are for the inflation to remain flat again in March to 0.4%;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has narrowed last month and is expected to moderately contract again in the upcoming report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;

Wednesday, April 13th

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refer to March; in the last February update, retail sales edged down by 0.1% (month-over-month); core retail also by 0.1%; currently, the market expects core sales to expand by 0.4% and retail sales to edge up by 0.1%;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to March 2016. In last month’s report regarding February, this index for finished goods slipped by 0.2%, m-o-m; the core PPI didn’t move; this will serve as a preview for the CPI report;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will release its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank shows any changes in this press conference; it could impact the Canadian dollar;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate: Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 0.50%. And the market still expects no change to policy this time;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 8th;

Thursday, April 14th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent February report the rate of unemployment declined to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly picked up by 0.3K people. The ongoing weakening of the Aussie dollar may start to help the country’s employment situation (see here the recent report);

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the last flash estimate, the CPI decreased by 0.2% in March;

13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England isn’t expected to raise rates in the upcoming policy meeting;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the changes in the core consumer price index for March 2016. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in February, the CPI ticked down by 0.2%; the core CPI rallied again by 0.3%; this time, the CPI and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.2%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 8th; in the recent report, jobless claims decreased to 267K and is expected to slightly rise this week – the outlook is at 270K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 8th;

Friday, April 15th

03:00 –China First Quarter GDP 2016: Back in Q4, China’s economy grew by 6.8% in annual terms – close to expectations — even though the economic data published in China isn’t too reliable. Current expectations place the growth rate at an annual rate of 6.7% for Q1 – which is in line with China’s growth rate goals of 6.5-7%. Any lower figure could prompt more selloffs of Chinese equities;

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the latest monthly report, China industrial production slid to an annual rate of 5.4% — lower than market expectations; in the next report, the growth rate is estimated to bounce back to 6%;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the last report regarding February 2016, manufacturing sales rose by 2.3%;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during March; as of February, industrial production decreased by 0.5%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the latest report, the sentiment index declined to 90; for the next report, the index is expected to pull up to 92.3;

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