Financial Market Forecast for April 14-18

The commodities markets heated up as oil, natural gas and precious metals rallied during last week.  This week several reports, speeches and publications will come to fruition including: U.S retail sales, China’s GDP for the first quarter, Janet Yellen’s speech, BOJ’s Kuroda  speech, U.S industrial production, Great Britain Claimant Count, U.S CPI, BOC rate decision, U.S housing starts and building permits, China new loans, Philly Fed index, and EU industrial production.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of April 14th to April 18th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, Japan, Canada, Great Britain, and Australia.  

 (All times GMT):

Monday, April 14th

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of March; as of February, the production slipped by 0.2%; this report may affect the Euro currency;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last report, the total loans fell to 645 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic activity;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to March; in the last report regarding February, retail sales slightly rose by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail also increased by 0.3%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some input regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, and the RBA is likely to keep its monetary policy and its rate unchanged in the near future. The minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its recent decision; this news may affect the Australian dollar and consequently commodities prices;

Tuesday, April 15th

10:30 – GB CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI slightly fell to an annual rate of 1.7% during February. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could affect BOE’s monetary policy;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for March. In February, the ZEW indicator for Germany tumbled down to 46.6 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to fall, the Euro could plausibly weaken against other currencies including the US dollar;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding February 2014, manufacturing sales increased by 1.5%;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the main developments in the core consumer price index for March 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during February, the CPI edged up by 0.1%; the core CPI also inched up by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and the FOMC’s monetary policy;

13:45 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Conference: 2014 Financial Markets Conference, Stone Mountain, Georgia;

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for February 2014. In the previous report regarding January 2014, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $7.3 billion;

03:00 –China First Quarter GDP 2014: In the fourth quarter of 2013, China grew by 7.7% in annual terms; China’s economy grew by 7.8% in the third quarter of 2013. The current expectations are that the first quarter of 2013 grew in annul terms by a similar pace to the previous quarter; if the growth rate further increases, this may positively affect commodities prices;

Wednesday, April 16th

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly report, China industrial production declined to an annual rate of 8.6%; if the growth rate drops again, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing slower;

07:15 –Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks: Governor Kuroda will speak at the 89th Convention of the Trust Companies Association of Japan, in Tokyo;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 34.6k; the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 7.2%;

10:00 – EU CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 0.7% during February. The changes in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for March 2014; this report was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts rises, gold tends to fall the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts rose by 3.4% during February to reach over 910k houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last update, during February, building permits rose by 8.5% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 1,020k. If building permits continues to rise, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is heating up (the recent U.S building permits update);

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the U.S industrial production during March; as of February, the production rose by 0.6%; this report may affect the US dollar;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will decide on its overnight rate – the rate is set at 1%. The BOC may keep its policy unchanged and maintain its interest rate at 1%; the economic developments in Canada might prompt BOC to eventually reduce its cash rate;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank presents any shifts in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 11th;

17:15 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Following the recent release of the minutes of the last FOMC, in which the FOMC decided to taper QE3 by $10 billion, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech titled “Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery” at the Economic Club of New York. Her words carry weight and could stir up the financial markets again especially if she were to address the FOMC’s monetary policy;

01:30 –Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks: Governor Kuroda will speak at the Branch Managers Meeting, in Tokyo;

Thursday, April 17th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the developments in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for February; in the recent report, the core CPI rose by 0.7%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 11th; in the recent report the jobless claims fell by 32k to reach 300k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding March, the growth rate rose from -6.3 in February to +9 in March. If the index further rises, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 11th;

Friday, April 18th

Good Friday – Stocks and Commodities Markets Remain Closed

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