Financial Market Outlook for April 25-29

In the midst of earnings season next week will also entail two major events that could boost even further up volatility: The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and U.S. GDP for Q1. Other events and reports to consider include: BOJ’s policy meeting, China’s manufacturing PMI, EU M3, U.S. PCE, Canada’s GDP, new and pending home sales, U.S. consumer confidence, Australia’s CPI, GB’s GDP for Q1, and German retail sales. So let’s review the main events for the week of April 25th to 29th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 25th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of April. In the March report, the business climate index rallied to 106.7; currently, the market expects a modest gain to 107.1;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to March; in the recent report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 512,000; current estimates are for a higher growth with an annual rate of 521,000;

Tuesday, April 26th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to March and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of February  2016, core durable goods declined by 1%, month over month; in the next report, core durable goods are expected to rise by 0.6%;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for March, consumer confidence index rose to 96.2. The current estimates are that the index slide back to 95.8;

Wednesday, April 27th

00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the last quarterly update, the CPI slipped to 0.4%, Q-o-Q. The current expectations are for the next report to show another drop to a 0.2% quarterly pace;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the shifts of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of March 2016. In the last report, the annual growth rate for M3 remained unchanged at 5%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to maintain the 5% rate;

09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q1 2015: This report will refer to the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the first quarter; current projections are for a 0.4% gain;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during March; in the previous update for February, pending home sales index rose by 3.5% (month-over-month); this time, however, the index is expected to rise by only 0.3%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 22nd;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting: This will be the third FOMC meeting in 2016. The market doesn’t anticipate any major change to policy; this meeting doesn’t include a press conference and economic outlook; considering several FOMC members presented hawkish statements and since the economic data showed some signs of improvement, the Fed could hint of a possible rate hike in June, which could impact stocks, commodities and the U.S. dollar;

23:50 – Japan’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for March 2016, retail sales rose by 0.5%; and in the next report, sales are expected to fall by 1.4%;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In this Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will decided if it’s time to introduce more monetary stimulus. The BOJ will also release a revised economic outlook;

Thursday, April 28th

13:30 – First Estimate of U.S GDP for 1Q 2016: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s Q1 2016 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q4 the GDP grew by 1.4% — above expectations. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to drop to 0.7%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 22nd; in the last report, jobless claims declined to 247K; in the next report, estimates are for 252K jobless claims;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 22nd;

Friday, April 29th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for March 2016, retail sales declined by 0.4%;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for March, the annual CPI inched up to -0.1%. The core CPI rose to 1%; in the upcoming report, the market estimates the CPI were to remain at -0.1% and core CPI  to reach 0.9%;  

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for February 2016. In the previous update regarding January 2016, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.6%;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the changes in U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to remain unchanged at 0.1%;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the previous report, the sentiment index declined to 91;

00:00 – China’s Manufacturing PMI: In the last report, the PMI rose to 50;

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