Financial Market Preview for April 27-May 1

The U.S. dollar resumed its descent while precious metals kept coming down. But this could all change if the FOMC were to surprise the market in its forthcoming statement. On this week’s agenda in the U.S: FOMC meeting, GDP for Q1 – first estimate, manufacturing PMI, pending home sales, core PCE, and UoM consumer sentiment. In Europe: GB manufacturing PMI, EU flash CPI, EU Monetary developments report, German retail sales and GB GDP for Q1. China’s manufacturing PMI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting and BOJ’s economic outlook will also be released this week.  So let’s review the main events and reports for the week of April 27th to May 1st:

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 27th

23:40 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Australian Financial Review Banking & Wealth Summit, in Sydney;

00:50 – Japan’s Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales fell by 1.8%; the current expectations are for another drop in retail sales of 7.4% for the upcoming report;

Tuesday, April 28th

09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q1 2015: This report will show the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the first quarter of 2015; current projections are for a 0.5% gain;

13:45 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor will testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent update for March, the consumer confidence index bounced back to 101.3; this suggests consumer spending is growing faster. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will reach 102.6;

Wednesday, April 29th

Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for March 2015, the CPI rose again by 0.5%. In next report, the expectations are for the CPI to decline, this time, by 0.1%;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of March 2015. In the previous February report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 4%; M1 also increased to 9.1%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached 0.6%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise again to 4.3%;

13:30 – First U.S GDP 1Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q4 2014 the GDP rose by 2.2%. The current estimates are that the GDP grew by 1% in the recent quarter – slower growth than in the fourth quarter. If the US gross domestic product shows a lower growth rate, this could adversely impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during March; in the previous update for February, pending home sales index rose by 3.1% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 24th;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting Statement: This will be the third FOMC meeting for the year and will take place between April 28th and 29th. This time, the FOMC won’t release an update on its economic outlook and with no press conference. So the statement is likely to create fewer waves than it did in the previous meeting. Considering the recent “less than impressive NF payroll report and (expected) low GDP growth rate for Q1 2015, the FOMC could take a more dovish tone and ease down on the “raising rates soon” talk. In any case, another dovish statement (a reminder last one was considered dovish albeit the minutes came across a bit more hawkish) could trigger gains for gold and silver.;

Thursday, April 30th

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;

06:00 – BOJ’s Outlook Report: This is a biannual report that is published on April and October. It sums up Bank of Japan’s forecast for the Japanese economy; based on this outlook, it could provide some indication about the future steps of BOJ;

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for March 2015, retail sales decreased by 0.5%; this month’s estimates are for a gain of 0.5%;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to rise to 91.7;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for March, the annual CPI was -0.1%. The core CPI remained flat at 0.6%. This is still below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are for the inflation to reach 0% and the core CPI to remain unchanged at 0.6%;

10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s report showed that the rate of unemployment edged up to 11.3%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area hasn’t improved;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for February 2015. In the last update regarding January 2015, the real gross domestic product contracted by 0.1%; the current expectations are for the GDP to inch down by 0.2%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 24th; in the previous report the jobless claims reached 294K;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another indicator the FOMC follows to get a sense of the progress of inflation. In the recent update, the PCE index rise by 0.1% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the PCE to rise by 0.6% and 0.2% gain in core PCE in the next report;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 24th;

15:30 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor will hold testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, before the Senate Finance Committee, in Ottawa;

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are very slowly growing. If the updated PMI index falls, this may suggest China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing down;

Friday, May 1st

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During March, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rallied again to 54.4– market expectations are that in April the PMI edged up to 54.6;

15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to April 2015. Back in March, the index declined to 51.5; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to slightly rise to 52.1;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the past update, the sentiment index rose to 96.1;

For further reading: