Financial Market Forecast for April 7-11

The commodities markets recovered mainly at after the U.S NF payroll report showed a rise of 192k in jobs during March. This week several reports and events will take place including: G20 Summit, U.S JOLTS Job Openings, China’s CPI, minutes of FOMC meeting, Japan’s current account, U.S PPI, Great Britain Manufacturing Production, Australia’s employment report, U.S federal budget, China new loans, BOC Business Outlook Survey, BOE and BOJ monetary policy meetings,  and IEA and OPEC monthly update.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of April 7th to April 11th  

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 7th

08:00 – Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves: Swiss National Bank will provide an update on its reserves. In the previous update, total reserves reached 433.5 billion CHF;

15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will release its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic forecast. This report could also reflect the potential changes in BOC’s monetary policy;

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the changes in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;

Tuesday, April 8th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of February; in the last report regarding January 2014 the index rose by 0.4%; this news may affect the British Pound;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings during March, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding February, the number of jobs opening was 3.97 million;

Wednesday, April 9th

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last report, the total loans rose to 645 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during March 2014; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 4th;

19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Back in March, the FOMC meeting decided to taper again its asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $55 billion a month. This news seems to have had an adverse effect on the prices of gold and silver. The US dollar also recovered against major currencies. The upcoming minutes might shed some light on this decision, the FOMC’s future monetary steps and especially the decision process about setting the timing for hiking its cash rate;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding February 2014 the rate of unemployment remained flat at 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 47,300 people. This report could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, April 10th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly update, China’s trade balance dropped from a surplus to a $23 billion deficit; if the deficit expands further, it could indicate China’s economy isn’t improving and thus may negatively affect commodities prices;

08:45 –French Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the industrial production as of February; as of February, the production inched down by 0.2%;

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for February analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will publish its basic rate for April 2014; the MPC will also state of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; as of March, BOE leave its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;

Day 1 – G20 Summit: The ministers of finance of the leading economies will convene and are expected to talk about a range of global economic issues, including Russian-Ukraine crisis, in WashingtonDC;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 4th; in the previous report the jobless claims rose by 16k to reach 326k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 4th;

19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This forthcoming report will refer to March 2014; this report presents the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the last report regarding February the deficit dropped by $193.5 billion; if the deficit widens further, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding implementing additional budget cuts in the future;

00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan will release the kept the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting. This report may offer some insight regarding the bank’s future plans; this news may affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices;

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of 2%; if the annual rate declines again, it could signal the Chinese economy is slowing down.

Friday, April 11th

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to March 2014. In the recent report regarding February, this index for finished goods inched down by 0.1% compared with January’s level; the core PPI also decreased by 0.2%; this news might affect the USD;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show a revised (as of March) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014;

Day 2 – G20 Summit: This will the second day of this summit;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index decreased to 79.9;

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