Financial Market Outlook for August 15-19

The volatility in the markets may have subsided. But this week we will see several hard data points from the post-Brexit UK; these economic reports are likely to lead the way in the financial markets including CPI, Claimant Count Change and retail sales. Other reports and events to consider include: minutes of the FOMC meeting, U.S. housing starts, Japan’s GDP, U.S. CPI, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. Philly Fed index, minutes of RBA’s meeting, and German ZEW economic sentiment. So let’s preview the main events for the week of August 15th to 19th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 15th

00:00 – Japan’s GDP: Japan’s GDP for Q2 will be released; this is a preliminary estimate. Currently, the market expects the growth rate will be 0.2%;

Tuesday, August 16th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.5% in its recent meeting; this report may move the Aussie dollar and perhaps indicate what’s next for RBA’s policy;

09:30 – GB CPI: Based on the recent update, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 0.5% in June; in the next report, the CPI is expected to remain flat at 0.5%;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for July. Back in June, the ZEW indicator for Germany declined to -6.8 points; the current estimates are for a gain to 2.1;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the last report regarding June 2016, manufacturing sales declined by 1%; this time, it’s expected to rise by 0.8%;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The U.S Census Bureau will release for July 2016 the U.S. building permits monthly report; in the previous update, total permits picked up to 1,150 thousand houses (the recent U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest gain to 1,160 thousand houses;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: In the last report, U.S. housing starts increased to 1,190 thousand houses; in the upcoming report, this figure is expected to edge up to 1,180 thousand houses;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the changes in the core consumer price index for July 2016. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in June, the CPI edged up by 0.2%; the core CPI  also rose by 0.2%; this time, the CPI and core CPI are expected to reach 0% and 0.2%, respectively;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will show the shifts in the U.S industrial production during July; as of June, industrial production increased by 0.6%;

Wednesday, August 17th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the recent report, this index rose to 2.3%; in the next report, the index is expected to increase again to 2.5%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the latest monthly report, the number of unemployed in GB rose by 0.4K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 4.9% and is expected to maintain this level this time as well;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 12th;

19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: This will be one of the main event of the week that could provide some perspective regarding the latest FOMC meeting and what’s next for the FOMC; the FOMC didn’t change its policy in the recent meeting and isn’t expected to move rates anytime soon but the minutes could impact market expectations;

Thursday, August 18th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the previous June report the rate of unemployment ticked up to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 7.9K people (see here the recent report);

09:30 – GB Retail Sales: In the upcoming report the market expects sales to have risen by 0.1% compared to the previous month;

13:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey, the growth rate rose from 4.7 in June to -2.9 in July; in the next report, the index is expected to bounce back to 1.4 (the recent Philly Fed review);

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 12th; in the last report, jobless claims slightly fell to 266K; in the next report, estimates are for 269K jobless claims;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 12th;

Friday, August 19th

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI didn’t move, M-o-M;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding June, sales increased by 0.9%;

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