The recent decision of China to allow its currency to slightly devalue has caused a sharp rise in volatility mainly in the foreign exchange market. Now that the talks of additional devaluation has subsided, the focus in the financial markets is likely to shift back to the U.S. with the minutes of the FOMC to be released this week. Other reports to consider include: U.S. CPI, minutes of last RBA’s meeting, BOJ rate decision, GB net borrowing, U.S. existing home sales, Japan’s trade balance, U.S. housing starts, China’s manufacturing PMI, and Canada’s retail sales. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of August 17th to 21st:
(All times GMT):
Monday, August 17th
23:50 – Japanese GDP for Q2 – Preliminary estimate: In the first quarter of the year, the Japanese economy grew, again, by 0.6% — the same as in Q1; this time, the current estimates are that economy contracted by 0.5%, year over year, in Q2;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t change its cash rate, which is still set at 2%, in the August meeting;
Tuesday, August 18th
09:30 – GB CPI: According to the previous monthly update, the CPI didn’t grow back in June. The current projections are for another flat growth rate in inflation in July;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S. housing starts monthly update for July 2015; in the recent report, housing starts increased to 1,170 houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous report, during June, building permits slightly rose to 1,340K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a decline to 1,210K;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: In May 2015 the Japanese trade balance reached a 0.25 billion yen deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; the trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;
Wednesday, August 19th
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the shifts in the core consumer price index for July 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in June, the CPI increased by 0.3%; the core CPI edged up by 0.2%;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 14th;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: This will be the last repot will see before the FOMC meeting of September, in which there is still a chance for the historic rate hike to take place, even though the odds are now lower considering China could start to devalue its currency and inflation is still well below 2%. The minutes will not consider the recent Chinese change in policy, which took place after the FOMC meeting. The minutes will still provide a bit more guidance about the FOMC members’ thoughts vis-à-vis the rate hike;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;
Thursday, August 20th
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain declined by 0.2%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 14th; in the previous report, jobless claims slightly rose to 274K; the expectations are for this number to slightly fall to 272K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 14th;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding July, the growth rate fell from +15.2 in June to +5.7 in July. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to 7.2 (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for July 2015; in the previous June report, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to slip to 5.45 million houses;
Friday, August 21st
02:45 – China’s Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI: In the previous estimate, the PMI was still below 50 at 48.2; current estimates are for the PMI to inch down to 48.1 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting at a slightly faster pace;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last July update, France’s PMI declined to 49.6 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting. Germany’s PMI also slipped to 51.5 – the industry is expanding but at a slower pace;
09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on last month’s report, public net borrowing reached a surplus of 8.6 billion pounds; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments; current expectations are for a modest shift to a deficit of 2.3 billion pounds;
13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI remained unchanged, M-o-M. The current expectations are for the next report to show another flat growth rate;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding June 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 0.9%; current estimates are for a 0.6% gain in the next report;
02:45 – U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI: In last month’s report, the PMI rose to 53.8; current estimates are for the PMI to inch down to 53.5 – the manufacturing conditions are still growing but at a slightly slower rate;
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