Financial Market Outlook for August 22-26

This week’s Jackson Hole Symposium will have the markets looking forward for Yellen’s speech on Friday, but this speech could end up disappointing as it may not provide more guidance from the Chair of the FOMC. Other reports and events that will unfold this week include: U.S. GDP, German business climate, U.S. core durable goods, EU manufacturing PMI, GB’s GDP, U.S. news and existing home sales, EU monetary development, and U.S. consumer confidence. So let’s examine the main events for the week of August 22nd to 26th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 22nd

05:00 – BOJ Governor Kuroda talks: He is expected to speak at the Bank of Japan’s Fintech Forum, in Tokyo;

Tuesday, August 23rd

09:30 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last report, the France’s PMI rose to 48.6 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting at a slower pace as of July. Conversely, Germany’s PMI declined to 53.7 – the industry is expanding at a slower rate; currently, the market estimates Germany’s PMI to remain unchanged at 53.6;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will pertain to July; in the previous report (opens pdf file), sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 592,000; current estimates, however are for a modest fall in the next report to an annual rate of 575,000;

Wednesday, August 24th

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for July 2016; in June, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to slightly decrease to 5.55 million houses;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 19th;

Thursday, August 25th

Two Day Event – Jackson Hole Symposium: An Economic Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming;

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of August; In the July report, the business climate index slipped to 108.3; currently, the market expects a modest gain to 108.5;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refers to July and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of June  2016, core durable goods declined by 0.5%, month over month; in the next report, core durable goods are expected to increase by 0.4%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 19th; in the recent report, jobless claims slipped to 262K; in the next report, estimates are for 265K claims;

16:00 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 19th;

Friday, August 26th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of July 2016. In the last report, the annual growth rate for M3 increased to 5%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to remain at 5% rate;

09:30 – GB’s GDP for 2Q: In the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.6% and isn’t expected to change in the upcoming report;

13:30 – Second Estimate of U.S GDP for 2Q 2016: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s Q2 2016 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q2 the GDP grew by 1.2%, which was lower than expected. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to edge down to 1.1%;

Tentative – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks: Chair Yellen will give a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium; even though the market expects for Yellen’s speech, she isn’t likely to provide a lot of guidance about what’s next for the Fed’s policy;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index inched up to 90.4;

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