Financial Market Forecast for December 8 -12

The recent NFP payroll report showed a higher than expected gain of 321K jobs in November. This news was enough to bring down gold and silver and pull back up U.S. dollar against the yen and Aussie dollar.  Looking forward, this week’s second targeted LTRO program will take the center stage and could move the markets. Besides this event, in the U.S. several key economic reports will be released including: JOLTS, retail sales, jobless claims, PPI, and consumer sentiment. Japan’s GDP for Q3 will be released. China’s news loans, CPI, and trade balance will be published. The Libor rate of SNB will be announced. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of December 8th to 12th.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, December 8th

00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. It could provide an indication to the progress of the Japanese economy. In the preceding monthly update the surplus in the current account expanded to 0.41 trillion yen;

00:50 – Japan’s GDP for Q3: This will be the final estimate for Japan’s GDP growth rate in the third quarter. The current expectations are it will show a modest fall of 0.1%. This comes after the economy contracted by 1.8% in the second quarter;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the previous monthly update, China’s trade balance grew to a $45.4 billion surplus; the current estimates are for the trade balance to shrink to $44.3 billion;

All Day – Euro-group Meetings: These meetings are held in Brussels and include meetings among Euro-group President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank;

Tuesday, December 9th

01:30 – Australia’s NAB Business Confidence: This report measures the diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry; last time the index fell again to 4;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of October; in the last report regarding September 2014 the index rose again by 0.4%;

All Day – ECOFIN Meetings: ECOFIN is the Euro zone’s broadest financial decision making body. The meetings among EU Finance Ministers will revolve around the recent economic developments in the Euro zone may include talks about the ongoing low inflation, debt problems and high unemployment;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for November, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update regarding October, the number of jobs opening slipped to 4.74 million; current market predictions are for the number to rise again to 4.81 million;

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI remained at an annual rate of 1.6%; if the annual rate remains flat, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up; the current expectations are for the CPI to remain unchanged again;

Wednesday, December 10th

06:45 – French Industrial Production: This report shows the development in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Last month’s index remained flat;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the latest monthly update, the total loans dropped to 548 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 5th;

Thursday, December 11th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding October 2014 the rate of unemployment inched up to 6.2%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 24.1K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

08:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: The Swiss National Bank will publish its Libor rate decision; this decision could affect not only currencies markets but also commodities markets, assuming, the bank changes its Libor rate; this rate decision will be accompanied with and SNB press conference;

10:15 – Targeted LTRO: This will be among the main events of the week. In the recent ECB rate decision, Draghi remained unclear and taking the same “let’s wait and see” approach. But he the tone of this speech was still dovish enough to bring down the Euro/USD. He also hinted a full blown QE program could be in the workings by next year. In any case, the success of this program of targeted loans could be a key factor for the possibility and timing of launching a QE program. This is the second of two tranches that were announced by the ECB to lend banks cash for lending it to people and companies; the first one only brought in 82.6 billion Euros – lower than expected.

13:00 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to hold a press conference 80 minutes after the speaking time listed;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to November; in the last report regarding October, retail sales rose by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail also rallied by 0.3%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.1% growth in core retail sales in November;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 5th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 297K; the expectations are  for this number to inch up to 299K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 5th;

Friday, December 12th

03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the last monthly report, China industrial production slipped to an annual rate of 7.7%; if the growth rate keeps falling (current outlook is for a growth rate of 7.6%), it may suggest China’s economy is progressing at a slower pace;

10:00 – EU’s Industrial Production: In the recent report, EU’s industrial production rose by 0.6%; this economic report is another indicator for the progress of the EU economy; the current estimates are for this week’s report to show a 0.2% gain in industrial production, month over month;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to November 2014. In the previous report regarding October, this index for finished goods inched up by 0.2% compared with September’s level; the core PPI rose by 0.4%; this news may impact the USD;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index increased to 89.4;

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