Financial Market Outlook for February 1-5

The recent rally in the stock market has eased the concerns over the prospects of a bear market in equities. But this could all change if U.S. and China’s economic reports show signs of slowdown. This week the focus will be on U.S. NFP report and China’s manufacturing PMI. Other reports to consider include: German factory orders, U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment, U.S. factory orders, EU’s unemployment, U.S. PCE, and two rate decisions by BOE and RBA. So let’s breakdown the main events for the week of February 1st to 5th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 1st

02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the PMI slipped to 48.2; current estimates are for the PMI to inch down to 48.1 – the manufacturing conditions are contracting at a faster pace;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in December, Great Britain’s manufacturing index declined to 51.9 – manufacturing is still expanding albeit at the slower rate; this time, the PMI is expected to slip to 51.8;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the changes in U.S. inflation. In the last report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up again by 0.1%;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to January 2016. In the recent update for December, this index declined to 48.2 — the manufacturing sector is contracting; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 48.6 – indicating the manufacturing conditions are still shirking but at a slower rate;

16:00 – ECB President Draghi testifies: He is expected to testify about the 2015 ECB Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg;

Tuesday, February 2nd

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last month, RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 2%. The RBA is expected to maintain its rates flat this time as well;

10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment inched down again to 10.5%; it is estimated to remain unchanged;

Wednesday, February 3rd

00:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: According to the previous report, the deficit slipped to $2.91 billion;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for January 2016 that will be published on Friday;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in December, the PMI declined to 55.3– the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace. And it’s estimated to reach 55.2 in the next report;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 29th;

Thursday, February 4th

08:00 – ECB President Draghi speaks: He is expected to speak at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Marjolin Lecture, in Frankfurt;

13:00 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2016 and 2017;

13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England isn’t expected to raise rates. The main takeaway will be the vote count and whether there will be, yet again, a dissenter to the vote;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 29th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 278K; in the upcoming report, estimates are for 286K claims;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 29th;

Friday, February 5th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade increased again by 0.4%;

08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders increased by 1.5% during December; currently, the market expectations are for a fall of 0.4% in January;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update regarding December, unemployment remained flat at 7.1%; employment increased by 22.8K;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report 292K jobs were added – much more than expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate remained flat at 5%. If the upcoming report shows doesn’t show a stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 192K), this could bring down the USD;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance shrank to $2.0 billion;

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