Financial Market Outlook for February 29- March 4

The U.S. dollar, equities and oil prices bounced back last week as the bearish sentiment has subsided, mostly fueled by some positive U.S. reports: The GDP for Q4 showed a gain of 1% — higher than the first estimate and market estimates — but consumer spending growth rate was lower than in the previous estimate. The concerns over a possible Brexit drove down the GB pound and Euro, which helped pull up the USD. This week the main reports will be the U.S. NFP, China’s manufacturing PMI, and U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. Other reports to consider include: U.S. factory orders, Canada’s GDP, EU’s flash CPI, RBA’s rate decision, Australia GDP for Q4. So let’s overview the main events for the week of February 29th to March 4th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 29th

23:50 – Japan’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for January 2016, retail sales declined by 1.1%;

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for January 2016, retail sales fell by 0.2%;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the previous estimate for January, the annual CPI rose to 0.4%. The core CPI edged up to 1%; in the upcoming report, the market estimates the CPI were to reach 0% and core CPI – 0.9%;  

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during January; in the previous update for December, pending home sales index inched up by 0.1% (month-over-month); this time, however, the index is expected to rise by 0.6%;

02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the latest report, the PMI rose to 48.4; current estimates are for the PMI to remain at 48.1 – the manufacturing conditions are contracting at  the same pace;

Tuesday, March 1st

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last month, RBA kept its cash rate flat at 2%. The RBA isn’t expected to revise its rates unchanged this time;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in January, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 52.9 – manufacturing is expanding at the faster rate; this time, the PMI is expected to slip to 52.3;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for December 2015. In the previous update regarding November 2015, the real gross domestic product increased by 0.3%; the market expects the GDP rose by 0.1% last month;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to February 2016. In the recent update for January, this index remained at 48.2 — the manufacturing sector is still contracting; current estimates are for the PMI to slightly rose to 48.5 – indicating the manufacturing conditions are still shirking but at a slower pace;

Wednesday, March 2nd

00:30 – Australian GDP for Q4 2015: This quarterly report will refer to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for Q4 2015. In the third quarter, the GDP grew by 0.9% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.5% gain in Q4 (see here last update);

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for February 2016 that will be published on Friday;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 26th;

Thursday, March 3rd

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 26th; in the last report, jobless claims rose to 272K; in the upcoming report, estimates are for 271K claims;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in January, the PMI declined to 53.5– the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace. And it’s estimated to reach 49.8 in the next report, which means the non-manufacturing sector is contracting for the first time in several years;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders decreased by 2.9% during January; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 2.1% in February;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 26th;

Friday, March 4th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade remained unchanged;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report 151K jobs were added – less than expected; the U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.9%. If the upcoming report doesn’t show a stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 195K), this could drag back down the USD;

13:30 – U.S. Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $43.4 billion;

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