Financial Market Preview for July 13-17

The Greek drama continues to dominate the news cycle and isn’t likely to get off the headlines until a bailout deal is struck or a final Greek exit decision is made. So even though the Greek debt crisis will likely to crowd out other reports and financial events, this week’s agenda is still packed with many news items that could move the markets including: Yellen testifies, China’s GDP for Q2, U.S. CPI, ECB’s rate decision, U.S. retail sales, U.S. PPI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. housing starts, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, EU CPI, and Canada’s CPI. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of July 13th to 17th:  

(All times GMT):

Monday, July 13th

All Day – EU Economic Summit: The European finance ministers will convene on Sunday and Monday to try and come up with ways to keep Greece in the EU; the depleting money in the Greek banks is putting a timer on these talks before Greece runs out of Euros and without a money infusion the country will have to start printing its own money or issue IOUs;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded again in last month but is expected to slightly contract in the next monthly report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last update, the total loans rose to 901 billion RMB; currently, market estimate the amount of new loans rose to 1,050 billion RMB;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during June 2015; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month;

Tuesday, July 14th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the latest monthly update, the CPI inched up by 0.1% in May. The current projections are for a modest gain of 0.1% inflation in June;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for June. Back in May, the ZEW indicator for Germany declined again to 31.5 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment keeps falling, this may imply a slowdown in the growth of its economy;

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to June; in the recent report regarding May, retail sales rose by 1.2% (month-over-month); core retail also grew by 1%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight vis-à-vis the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.7% gain in core retail sales in June;

Wednesday, July 15th

03:00 –China Second Quarter GDP 2015: In the first quarter, China’s economy grew by 7% in annual terms – slightly lower than the previous quarter. The current expectations are for the growth rate to modestly decline to an annual rate of 6.9% for the second quarter. If the growth rate declines even further, this may suggest the fears of China’s economic slowdown have some validity;

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the previous monthly update, China industrial production grew to an annual rate of 6.1% — slightly above market projections; the growth rate is estimated to slightly fall — current estimate is for a growth rate of 6%;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the latest report, this index grew by 2.7%; current market estimates are for the index to reach 3.3%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the recent monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 6.5K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.5% and is expected to remain at this rate in this upcoming report;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the previous report regarding May 2015, manufacturing sales changed course and fell by 2.1%; current expectations are for a 0.4% gain;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to June 2015. In the recent report referring to May, this index for finished goods rose by 0.5% compared with the preceding month’s level; the core PPI inched up by 0.1%; current estimates are for the PPI to present a gain of 0.2% in the forthcoming report;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will shows the changes in the U.S industrial production during June; as of May, industrial production slipped again by 0.2%;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will release its quarterly monetary policy update; if the Bank presents any changes in this press conference; it could impact the Canadian dollar;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The last time Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate was in January, and it’s currently stands at 0.75%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy;

15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Janet Yellen will testify before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, in Washington DC; she will present the Fed’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 10th;

Thursday, July 16th

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI reached an annual rate of 0.2% for June. This number means the EU is in slightly down. If the inflation keeps falling, this could indicate that the ECB’s policy has had little impact on the EU inflation;

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: The press conference of ECB President Draghi is highly anticipated in light of the Greek debt crisis and the role of ECB in this issue. The ECB is again not likely to change its policy but could offer some insight about the progress of ECB’s QE program;

15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Janet Yellen will also testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 9th; in the recent report, jobless claims slightly rose to 297K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly fall to 282K;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding June, the growth rate rose from +6.7 in May to +15.2 in June. This time, the index is expected to slightly fall to 12.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 10th;

Friday, July 17th

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI rose by 0.4%, M-o-M. The current expectations are for the next report to show a 0.1% monthly contraction;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for June 2015; in the previous report, housing starts decreased to 1,040K houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous report, during May, building permits slightly rose to 1,280K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a fall to 1,110K;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the changes in the core consumer price index for June 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in May, the CPI increased by 0.4%; the core CPI edged up by 0.1%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index rose to 94.6;

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