Financial Market Preview for June 15-19

This week all eyes will be set towards the upcoming FOMC meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday and include an updated economic outlook and press conference. This time, the meeting is likely to stir up the financial markets and crowd out the potential impact of other reports and events that will take place this week. In any case, other reports to consider include: U.S. CPI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting minutes, minutes of last RBA’s meeting, ECB President Draghi speaks, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB CPI, U.S. housing starts, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, EU CPI, Philly Fed index, and Canada’s retail sales. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of June 15th to 19th:  

(All times GMT):

Monday, June 15th

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the previous report regarding April 2015, manufacturing sales changed course and rose by 2.9%; current expectations are for a 1.3% drop;

14:00 –ECB President Draghi Speaks: President Draghi will testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during April; as of March, industrial production slipped again by 0.3%;

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 2% in the recent meeting; the minutes will provide additional information behind the recent rate decision;

Tuesday, June 16th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the recent monthly update, the CPI inched down by 0.1% in April. The current projections are for a modest gain of 0.1% inflation in May;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for May. Back in April, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped again to 41.9 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment keeps declining, this may imply a slowdown in the recovery of Germany’s economy;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for May 2015; in the latest report, housing starts increased again to 1,140K houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous report, during April, building permits slightly rose to 1,140K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest drop to 1,110K;

Wednesday, June 17th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the recent report, this index grew by 1.9%; current market estimates are for the index to rise and reach 2.5%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 12.6K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 5.5%;

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the previous MPC meeting, the Bank left its rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the BOE isn’t expected to change its policy anytime soon;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI reached an annual rate of 0.3% for May. This number means the EU is in slightly up. If the inflation keeps picking up, this could indicate that the ECB’s policy is starting to affect the EU inflation;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 12th;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This will be the fourth FOMC meeting for the year and will take place between June 16th and 17th. This time, the meeting will also include an update to the FOMC’s economic outlook and the dot plot and a press conference of FOMC Chair Yellen. Even though the market doesn’t expect to see any big announcements vis-à-vis a rate hike, it’s still an important meeting that is likely to crowd out all other reports and events this week. The current expectations are that the FOMC will slightly revise down its GDP outlook for the year. The big question will remain whether the FOMC were to drop any hints about the timing of the rate hike. Any positive feedback about the progress of the U.S. economy could be interpreted as a sign for moving a bit closer towards raising rates in one of the coming meetings; in such a scenario, the USD is likely to further rise and precious metals to take another fall;

Thursday, June 18th

08:30 – SNB’s Libor rate decision: The Swiss National Bank will announce of any changes to its monetary policy; after the big change in policy to stop pegging the Franc to the Euro and cutting down rates, this time the SNB isn’t expected to come up with big announcements;

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 1.2%;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the changes in the core consumer price index for May 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in April, the CPI edged up by 0.1%; the core CPI increased by 0.3%; this report could impact the USD and influence the FOMC members especially considering the meeting will take place a day earlier;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 13th; in the latest report, jobless claims slightly rose to 279K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly fall to 278K;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding May, the growth rate slipped from +7.5 in April to +6.7 in May. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to 8.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of June 12th;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;

Friday, June 19th

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI grew by 0.1%, M-o-M. The current expectations are for the next report to show a 0.3% monthly gain;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding April 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 0.5%; current estimates are for a 0.3% gain in the next report;

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