Financial Market Preview for June 22-26

The recent FOMC meeting and the ongoing saga around the Greek debt crisis, have kept pushing down the U.S. dollar against leading currencies and brought slightly up precious metals prices. These issues will continue to lead to news cycle and move markets as the uncertainty remains high. On this week’s agenda: U.S. GDP for Q1 — final estimate, Euro Summit about Greece’s debt, U.S. durable goods, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S. existing and new home sales, EU monetary development, German business climate, BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes, and U.S. core PCE.  So let’s review the main events and reports for the week of June 22nd to June 26th:

(All times GMT):

Monday, June 22nd

All Day – Euro Summit & EuroGroup Meetings: With the clock is clicking on Greece that will need to make a 1.5 billion euros payment to the IMF by June 30th or it will have to default on this debt, the EuroGroup President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states will try to find a way to bridge the gap between the EU and Greece – the debate is still around cutting the country’s deficit via lowering pensions payments, raising sales taxes and aiming at spending targets;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for May 2015; in the previous April report, the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to rise to 5.27 million houses;

Tuesday, June 23rd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for June. Last month’s report regarding May, the Manufacturing PMI remained nearly unchanged at 49.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is still contracting. The current expectations are for this index to edge up to 49.4. If the PMI index doesn’t pass the 50 mark, it will suggest China’s manufacturing sector isn’t growing;

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last May update, France’s PMI increased again to 49.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are still contracting but at a slower pace. Germany’s PMI slipped to 51.4 – the industry is expanding slower. This time, the estimates are for the German PMI to inch up to 51.5;

13:00 – FOMC Member Powell Speaks: Following the latest FOMC meeting, all eyes are set at the FOMC to try and figure out the next rate hike; FOMC member Powell plans to  speak about the Fed’s policy;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report pertain to May and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of April 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose by 0.5%, month over month; current estimates are for a 0.6% gain;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to May 2015; in the previous report (opens pdf; for February), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 517,000; current estimates are for a modest gain to an annual rate of 524,000;

23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting may add some insight behind its last policy meeting;

Wednesday, June 24th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index consists of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of June. In the May update, the business climate index inched down to 108.5 – the current expectations are that the index slipped to 108.2;

13:30 – Third U.S GDP 1Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the third and final estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the GDP contracted by 0.7%. The current estimates are that the GDP only contracted by 0.2% in the past quarter – an upward revision. A better estimate could provide another boost the U.S. dollar and raise the odds of a rate hike in the coming months by the FOMC;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 19th;

Thursday, June 25th

09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the last monthly report, the index rose to 10.2. If the index keeps slowly picking up, this could suggest the German economy is rebounding;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 19th; in the recent report the jobless claims slightly fell to 267K;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to review the U.S. inflation. In the last report, the PCE index remained flat and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to rise again by 0.1% and PCE by 0.7%;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of June 19th;

Friday, June 26th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of May 2015. In the last April report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 5.3%; M1 also increased to 10.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector remained at 0.8%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise again to 5.4%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index dropped to 90.7;

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