Financial Market Forecast for March 10-14

The commodities markets rallied mainly at the end of the week including stocks and energy commodities following the publication of the U.S NF payroll report, in which a higher than anticipated number of jobs were added in February. This week several reports and publications will take place including: U.S retail sales, China’s industrial production, ECOFIN Summit, Japan’s current account, EU industrial production, U.S PPI, Great Britain Manufacturing Production, Australia’s employment report, U.S federal budget, China new loans, and OPEC monthly update.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of March 10th to March 14th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, Japan, and Australia.  

 (All times GMT):

Monday, March 10th

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the developments in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;

08:45 –French Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of February; as of January, the production slipped by 0.3%;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last update, the total loans rose to 1320 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the forthcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;

Tuesday, March 11th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of January; in the last report regarding December 2013 the index inched up by 0.3%; this news may affect the British Pound;

10:00 – Great Britain Inflation report hearing: In these hearings BOE Governor is expected to testify and refer to the British inflation and the bank’s economic outlook in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee;

Wednesday, March 12th

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly changes in the industrial production as of February; as of January, the production fell by 0.7%; this report may affect the Euro currency;

All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the previous auction, which was held during the second week of February, the average rate fell to 2.80%;

19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to February 2014; this report shows the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding January the deficit rose by $10.4 billion; if the deficit continues to widen, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding next year’s budget cuts;

All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will be held in Brussels; the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may pertain to the recent developments in Europe;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during February 2014; this update will also pertain to the shifts in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 7th;

Thursday, March 13th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding January 2014 the rate of unemployment inched up to 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) decreased by 3,700 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: Based on the recent monthly report, China industrial production slipped to an annual rate of 9.7%; if the growth rate falls again, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing slower;

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for January analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to February; in the last report regarding January, retail sales slightly fell by 0.4% (month-over-month); core retail remained unchanged; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some input regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 7th; in the latest report the jobless claims fell by 26k to reach 323k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of March 7th;

Friday, March 14th

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to February 2014. In the previous report regarding January, this index for finished goods inched up by 0.2% compared with January’s level; the core PPI also increased by 0.2%; this news might affect the USD;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will present a revised (as of February) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the previous update, the sentiment index slightly increased to 81.2;

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