Financial Market Preview for March 7-11

The latest NFP came again with a mixed bag: Higher than expected growth in jobs – 242K vs. expected 195K – but lower wage growth – only annual rate of 2.2%. In the end, the USD and equities slightly rallied on Friday. The markets are likely to keep digesting the NFP figures at the start of the week along with China’s recent new 5-year plan. In any case, this week, the focus of the market will shift towards Europe and Asia: ECB rate decision, China’s CPI, German factory orders, Japan’s current account, GB manufacturing production, EU group meeting, China’s trade balance, BOE Governor speaks, and Japan’s GDP for Q4. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of March 7th to 11th:  

(All times GMT):

Monday, March 7th

08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last update, factory orders decreased by 0.7% during January; currently, the market expectations are for a decline of 0.4% in February;

23:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will show the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. In the last monthly update, the surplus in the current account expanded to 1.64 trillion yen;

23:50 – Japan’s GDP for Q4: This will be the final estimate for Japan’s GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter. The current expectations are it will show a contraction of 0.4%;

Tuesday, March 8th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded last month and is expected to moderately contract in the next report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;

09:15 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: He will testify along with BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe, on United Kingdom’s European Union membership before the Parliamentary Committee, in London;

Wednesday, March 9th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for January; in the last report regarding December 2015 the index fell again by 0.2%; this time, the estimates are for a gain of 0.2%;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate: Back in January Bank of Canada left its overnight rate at 0.50%. This time, the market expects the BOC will maintain the rate unchanged;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 4th;

Thursday, March 10th

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 1.8%; the market estimates the annual rate will remain unchanged at 1.8%;

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: This will be the main event of the week, as the expectations are high for the ECB to come up with changes to its monetary policy. Currently, the market expects the ECB will cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.4% and leave the cash rate unchanged. Also, the QE might be expanded by another 10 billion euros. Any further stimulus or new actions could push further down the Euro and show them markets that Draghi is still willing to do “whatever it takes to stimulate the EU economy, which hasn’t been doing well this year;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 4th; in the latest report, jobless claims increased to 278K and is expected to slightly decline this week – the outlook is at 272K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of March 4th;

Friday, March 11th

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update regarding January, unemployment edged up to 7.2%; employment increased by 10.2K;

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