The BOJ disappointed by not expanding its monetary stimulus, while the FOMC, as expected, didn’t budge on its rate hike talk. In the end, the USD continued to devalue against the Yen and Euro, which helped push back up commodities including oil and gold. This week, the focus will be on the U.S. and the NFP report, which is expected to deliver over 200K jobs gain for April. Other events and reports to consider include: U.S. factory orders, RBA’s rate decision, GB manufacturing PMI, Bullard’s speech, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S. trade balance, Canada’s employment, U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. So let’s breakdown the main events for the week of May 2nd to 6th.
(All times GMT):
Monday, May 2nd
15:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Draghi will deliver a speech titled “The future of financial markets: A changing view of Asia” at the Asian Development Bank annual meeting, in Frankfurt;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Back in March, the PMI bounced back to 51.8 — the manufacturing sector is expanding. And it’s estimated to inch down to 51.8 in the upcoming report, which means the manufacturing sector is expanding albeit at a slower pace;
Tuesday, May 3rd
02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the PMI rose to 49.7; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 49.8 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting but at the slower rate;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last time, RBA didn’t revise its cash rate, which stood at 2%. The RBA isn’t expected to move its rates this month;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in March, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 51 – manufacturing is expanding at the faster rate; this time, the PMI is expected to further rise to 51.3;
Wednesday, May 4th
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for April 2016 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – U.S. Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $47.1 billion; it’s expected to fall back to $45.6 billion in the upcoming report;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 30th;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in March, the PMI rallied to 54.5, which shows the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate. And it’s estimated to rise again to 54.9 in the forthcoming report – i.e. the non-manufacturing sector is expanding at an even faster pace;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: In the last update, factory orders decreased by 1.7% during March; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 0.7% in April;
Thursday, May 5th
02:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for March 2016, retail sales remained flat’
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 30th; in the recent report, jobless claims rose to 257K; in the next report, estimates are for 261K claims;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 30th;
16:30 – FOMC Member Bullard Talks: He is expected to speak at the County Economic Summit, in Santa Barbara;
Friday, May 6th
01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report 215K jobs were added – higher than market projections; the U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 5%. If the upcoming report continues to show a stronger than expected growth in employment (current estimates are at 206K), this could drive up the USD;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update regarding March, unemployment slipped to 7.1%; employment increased by 40.6K;
For further reading:
- Devastated by the Dovish Fed — MM #95
- The Fed Turns Dovish – The Dollar Comes Down
- What’s Up Ahead for Precious Metals in 2016?
- Who Is Actually Seeing a Raise?
- Will The Fed Do the Old Switcheroo?
- Yellen and the Markets’ Irrational Exuberance