Financial Market Outlook for May 30- June 3

The market is slowly adjusting to a possible rate hike in June by the Fed and even Chair Yellen in a recent interview stated that a rate hike in the coming months could be appropriate; but before the Fed meeting, the data will have to support a hike. And this week the main report will be the NFP for May. If the report comes short of market estimates this could reduce again a possible hike anytime soon. In Europe the main event will be the ECB rate decision. Other reports and events that could markets include: U.S. factory orders, EU flash CPI, U.S. core PCE, Canada’s trade balance, OPEC summit, GB manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, U.S. consumer confidence, China’s manufacturing PMI, and U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. So let’s review the main events for the week of May 30th to June 3rd.

(All times GMT):

Monday, May 30th

All Day – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the previous report the CPI dropped by 0.4%; but in the upcoming report the CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%;

Tuesday, May 31st

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for April 2016, retail sales declined by 1.1%; the current expectations are for a gain of 1.1%;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the shifts of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of April 2016. In the last report, the annual growth rate for M3 was flat at 5%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to maintain the 5% rate;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for April, the annual CPI inched down to -0.2%. The core CPI rose to 0.7%; in the upcoming report, the market estimates the CPI were to reach -0.1% and core CPI  to edge up to 0.8%;  

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the progress in the U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up by 0.2%;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for April, consumer confidence index declined to 94.2. The current estimates are that the index rose to 96.1;

00:30 – Australian GDP for Q1 2016: In the fourth quarter, the GDP grew by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.6% gain in Q1 (see here last update);

02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the PMI slipped to 49.4; current estimates are for the PMI to slide back to 49.3 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting but at a faster rate;

Wednesday, June 1st

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in April, Great Britain’s manufacturing index declined to 49.2 – manufacturing is shirking; this time, the PMI is expected to slightly pull back up to 49.6 – still contracting albeit at a slower pace;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Back in April, the PMI dropped to 50.8 — the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower pace. And it’s estimated to inch down to 50.6 in the upcoming report, which means the manufacturing sector is expanding albeit at a slower rate;

Thursday, June 2nd

02:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for April 2016, retail sales rose by 0.4%;

All Day – OPEC Summit: This meeting occurs twice a year in Vienna of all OPEC members; OPEC’s role in stabilizing the oil market seems to have diminished in the past few years and as such the meeting is likely to have little impact on oil prices;

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: This will be one of the main events of for week, even though the ECB isn’t expected to introduce any new policy measures. The ECB will present its updated economic projections for the EU economy. And the main event will be the press conference of Mario Draghi;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for May 2016 that will be published on Friday;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 27th; in the recent report, jobless claims declined to 268K; in the next report, estimates are for 271K claims;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 27th;

16:00 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of May 27th;

Friday, June 3rd

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previuos employment report only 160K jobs were added – below market expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5%. If the upcoming report continues to show slow growth in employment (current estimates are at 160K), this could bring back down the USD;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in April, the PMI rose to 55.7, which shows the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate. But it’s estimated to edge down to 55.4 in the forthcoming report – i.e. the non-manufacturing sector is expanding but at a slightly slower pace;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: In the last update, factory orders increased by 1.1% during April; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 0.9% in May;

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